Situating Africa in the exports patterns of China's Belt and Road Initiative: A network analysis
Koffi DumorLi YaoEnock Mintah AmpawCharles Hackman EsselEdwina Oheneasi EsselOnesmus Mbaabu Mutiiria
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Abstract This study analytically examines the structure and characteristics of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and African trade networks by applying network analysis techniques through a critical and in‐depth description of the international trade of Eastern African countries as part of the world trade network. Sixty‐four countries' trade flow data between 2000 and 2018 from the International Monetary Fund, was used, and the network indices indicate that the BRI significantly enhances the trade network's connectivity. The empirical results indicate that density, the degree of centralization, and average node intensity are typically growing, and China is in the central position of the network. Furthermore, East African intra‐regional trade tends to be more densely connected under the BRI. This, in effect, demonstrates that the BRI countries have experienced a rise in intra‐regional trade at different levels of economic development. Therefore, this study recommends that policymakers should consider the BRI's critical role in reforming trade policies to build a resilient and sustainable African economy.Keywords:
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In the majority of the EU potential members agricultural sector is playing a prominent role. Such an outcome is based on the high contribution of the agricultural sector on GDP, employment and trade accounts. EU initiated bilateral trade liberalization with the Western Balkans through the establishment of the ATPs. Furthermore, trade liberalization is extended in the regional level through the establishment of renewed CEFTA 2006. Despite the significant improvement, their export competitiveness remains weak. In the long run, agricultural exports might contribute on improvement of the export performance of the EU candidates. Main findings of the gravity model employed in this paper suggest that exports are positively affected by product size (GDP), and to lesser extent by the GDP of trading partners. Exports fall with the increase of the distance, and the fall in the value of exports is greater as larger is the distance between the trading partners. Therefore, the marginal fall in exports increases as far as the geographical distance between the trading partners increase. Initial assumptions that PTAs and cultural ties facilities the trade flows were affirmatively confirmed. Trade liberalization had a positive implication on improving export performance of the EU candidate countries.
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A popular approach to estimating the size of barriers to trade is the use of distance to infer trade costs in the framework of a gravity model. In this paper we are employing a classical gravity model with panel data in an attempt to identify the main determinants for Romania’s trade outflows towards Central and Eastern Europe, over the 1999-2013 periods. Based on different panel model specifications, we found that geographical distance, economic distance (captured by absolute GDP differentials between countries) and the level of development of the trade partners (provided by GDP per capita) are highly significant predictors for the volume of Romanian exports. The models indicated a strong negative influence of geographical distance, with an estimated coefficient slightly higher compared to the predictions of the traditional gravity models, a particular feature already detected in other empirical investigations on Southeast European trade
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A gravity model is very important in the analysis of bilateral trade flows, and has proven to be a useful tool in determining export potential of a country. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to analyze factors that determine export flows between Ethiopia and its trading partners using a gravity model approach. The research had used secondary data collected from different sources and covers periods from 1995-2010 for 14 importing countries, which implies that the data were panel. There was consideration of the importing capacity of the countries and successiveness of their importing condition for considering the countries as a sample. Different tests were applied in order to select the appropriate model to regress the gravity model. As of those tests, the research had adopted the random effects gravity model. The model result showed that six of the total variables (nine) are significant at different level of significance. Coefficients of per capita GDPs of importer and exporter countries, population size of trading partners, and the distance between nations are significant and as to the expected sign. However, the coefficients of population sizes of Ethiopia and bilateral exchange rate between nations are significant and against the hypotheses. Based on the result, successive enlargement of the foreign per capita GDP directly result into increment in the export revenue of Ethiopia. In addition, the more populous the trading partners of Ethiopia, the higher its export volumes as they imports much to satisfy large domestic demands. Moreover, distance between two countries, which is a proxy for transport costs, affects Ethiopian exports negatively. Keywords: Export, Gravity model, random effects, Panel data, Demand and Supply side factors
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The gravity model of international trade has been found to provide accurate predictions relating to the quantity and reasons why countries trade with each other. In a simple model that is very similar to Newton’s law of gravitation, the gravity model predicts that nations will trade more with countries that have larger economies and with countries that are closer in distance – in the same way that objects feel greater attraction to more massive objects and objects that are closer in distance. This paper will further explain the gravity model and some of the potential variables that could also impact bilateral trade between two countries and limit the effectiveness of the gravity model through the use of current literature. An empirical section follows, in which data are tested for 167 of Brazil’s trading partners to see how effective the gravity model is at predicting trade volumes in this case. In the end, this paper concludes that the gravity model is sufficiently successful in predicting the trade volumes of Brazil and its trading partners for the test year of 2018.
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Trade flows of agricultural commodities have always received a lot of attention in the Arab region, mainly due to their implications on food security, politics and competition. Most international trade theories postulate that free trade regimes have positive effects on bilateral trade. The justification is that regional trade blocks decrease barriers to intraregional trade and hence, member countries are likely to expect some benefits. Whether each member country actually benefits from such agreements is, however, a subject to debate and empirical tests. The gravity model is used in this paper to assess the impact of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement (GAFTA), particularly on the volume and pattern of bilateral agricultural trade during the period between 1995 and 2007. Our results reveal that GAFTA did not have the desired effects on the intra-regional volume of bilateral agricultural trade in four out of eight member countries selected for this study. The only countries in the sample that exhibited positive effects in both the import and export sectors are Lebanon and Syria. These findings uncover important facts that are hidden in the results of other studies, which concluded that the GAFTA has led to an increase in total intra-regional volume of trade. The current study adds to the literature by looking at the effects of the agreement on individual member countries' bilateral trade rather than the aggregate volume of intraregional trade.
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The concept of education position comes from the market position. It is a tactics of modeling image and increasing competition. The position of a university can divide into the present position and future position . Establishing the education position should abide by the principles of position and methodes of position, on this base, establishing the content of position.
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This paper analyses openness to trade, migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) using panel data. The focus is on the relationship between 15 EU countries (EU 15) as destination countries, and 71 trading partner countries which send migrants and receive FDI outflows, where only those predictions are introduced in the extended gravity model which are based on demographic trends of the partner countries and their geographical locations. The results confirm that a unified model successfully explains differences in openness to trade, migration and FDI between the EU 15 and the 12 new EU member countries, candidate countries, and developing countries.
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This study deals with estimating the volume of foreign trade between Turkey and BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) with the gravity model. In the estimation models where GDP and population amounts of the countries, which were evaluated in the years between 1992 and 2016, and the distance between countries are included, trade volume is considered as dependent variable. In the analysis, the results of the estimation model, including the population, confirm the hypothesis that gravity is based on the model. The results are meaningful and the coefficients bear the expected marks. Keywords : Gravity Model, Panel Regression, BRICS, Turkey DOI : 10.7176/EJBM/11-9-02 Publication date :March 31 st 2019
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The study aimed to empirically analyse GCC's trade patterns based on the gravity model. Gravity model is derived from physics and is used to explain the bilateral flow of trade determined by GDP per capita, population, and distance. It is assumed that trade flow between the two countries is positively related to their economic size and population. The gravity model has been analysed in six developed countries concerning trade with GCC countries from 2001 to 2012. The study concluded that GDP per capita and population for GCC and destination countries was significant. It also suggests that the trade barriers among the countries must be eradicated for better trade flow.
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This text acting on the index weighting the position of enterprise innovation analysis to position of enterprise position in our country,and reaches a conclusion of enterprise from no main position to main position in our country,bring up to suggestion for speeding up the conversion.
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