A gravity model analysis for trade between the GCC and developed countries
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The study aimed to empirically analyse GCC's trade patterns based on the gravity model. Gravity model is derived from physics and is used to explain the bilateral flow of trade determined by GDP per capita, population, and distance. It is assumed that trade flow between the two countries is positively related to their economic size and population. The gravity model has been analysed in six developed countries concerning trade with GCC countries from 2001 to 2012. The study concluded that GDP per capita and population for GCC and destination countries was significant. It also suggests that the trade barriers among the countries must be eradicated for better trade flow.Keywords:
Gravity equation
Foreign trade structure of Eurasian countries has been significantly affected from the increased globalization and changes in world politics. This paper analyzes bilateral trade of the selected Eurasian countries using gravity models for 1995-2020 period. For this purpose, we estimate augmented panel gravity model for a dataset of Eurasian countries. We examine the effects of a number of factors including countries’ GDP, population, distance and real exchange rate on the region’s export and import dynamics. Along with these variables, various explanatory variables such as GDP per capita, Linder effect, dummy variables that indicate common language, sharing of borders and free trade agreements are included in the models. To this end, we also analyze the impact of Eurasian Economic Union (EUEA) membership on the magnitude of bilateral trade flows. Gravity equations for export and import are estimated by fixed effects methodology. Our results suggest that income levels, factor endowments and real exchange rates are among the important determinants of trade performance of Eurasian economies.
Gravity equation
Per capita income
Geographical distance
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This study aimed to investigate Pakistan’s bilateral trade flows with major trading partners. Panel data for the time period 1990-2010 with a frequency of two years was analyzed. Gravity model was employed for the analysis of the data and proved to be successful in explaining Pakistan’s bilateral trade flows by high values of Rsquare and adjusted R-square. Results revealed that GDP and GDP Per capita positively affect trade volume while distance and dummy variable for cultural similarities showed a negative relationship towards trade volume. Ratio of actual trade to predicted trade determined for each of the partner country for the year 2010 revealed that Japan, Turkey, Malaysia, India and Iran have greater unrealized trade potential with Pakistan which leads to policy implications.
Gravity equation
Exploratory analysis
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In the gravity equation of international trade, bilateral trade flows are regressed on trading partners’ income and the distance that separates them along with other variables. This widely used equation is traditionally estimated by the ordinary least squares method. We employ an alternative technique of stochastic frontier estimation to assess the potential bilateral trade flows from the same gravity equation. Countries are shown to have low efficiencies in their international trade as the predicted trade from frontier estimation is generally far greater than actual trade. Trade efficiencies are computed and ranked for individual countries, ten geographical regions, and eleven regional trade agreements.
Gravity equation
Frontier
Ordinary least squares
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This paper applies the gravity trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade, and trade potential following the agreements reached recently between both trade blocs. The model is tested for a sample of 20 countries, the four formal members of Mercosur plus Chile and the fifteen members of the European Union. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, infrastructure, income differences and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows.
Gravity equation
Sample (material)
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This paper applies the gravity trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade, and trade potential following the agreements reached recently between both trade blocks. The model ist tested for a sample of 19 countries, the four formal members of Mercosur plus Chile and the fifteen members of the European Union. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, infrastructure, income differences and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows.
Gravity equation
Sample (material)
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This paper applies the gravity trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade, and trade potential following the agreements reached recently between both trade blocs. The model is tested for a sample of 20 countries, the four formal members of Mercosur plus Chile and the fifteen members of the European Union. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, infrastructure, income differences and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows.
Gravity equation
Sample (material)
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In this paper issue of gravity modeling in international trade has been investigated. Standard gravity equation augmented with other variables to control for transportation cost, whether trade partners are neighbors and whether country is landlocked, or countries participants in trade have had colonial history together. Also in our model we control whether traded commodities are homogenous, differentiated or high tech , as well referenced. Variable to denote technology are :TAI index, which stands for technological achievement index, also variables for creation and diffusion of technology , as measured by the number of patents from the residents and royalty and license fees receipts, by the foreign citizens. Results are as expected and the show that trade is highly dependent on the exporters and importers levels of technology
Landlocked country
Gravity equation
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In this paper issue of gravity modeling in international trade has been investigated. Standard gravity equation augmented with other variables to control for transportation cost, whether trade partners are neighbors and whether country is landlocked, or countries participants in trade have had colonial history together. Also in our model we control whether traded commodities are homogenous, differentiated or high tech, as well referenced. Variable to denote technology are: TAI index, which stands for technological achievement index, also variables for creation and diffusion of technology, as measured by the number of patents from the residents and royalty and license fees receipts, by the foreign citizens. Results are as expected and the show that trade is highly dependent on the exporters and importers levels of technology.
Landlocked country
Gravity equation
Control variable
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The aim of the paper is to compare different approximations of multilateral trade-resistance in the gravity model and the influence of their use on estimation results for models of EU-trade. Three synthetic variables: for bilateral trade costs, exporter’s and importer’s remoteness are used as an alternative for including time-varying country effects. Results indicate significant impact of those variables but not wholly compatible with the theory. Estimated coefficients of trade determinants, including Euro’s effects, have expected values in both approaches only if the FE estimator is applied.
Gravity equation
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In this paper issue of gravity modeling in international trade has been investigated. Standard gravity equation augmented with other variables to control for transportation cost, whether trade partners are neighbors and whether country is landlocked, or countries participants in trade have had colonial history together. Also in our model we control whether traded commodities are homogenous, differentiated or high tech, as well referenced. Variable to denote technology are: TAI index, which stands for technological achievement index, also variables for creation and diffusion of technology, as measured by the number of patents from the residents and royalty and license fees receipts, by the foreign citizens. Results are as expected and the show that trade is highly dependent on the exporters and importers levels of technology.
Landlocked country
Gravity equation
Control variable
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