Short‐term photovoltaic power dynamic weighted combination forecasting based on least squares method
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In recent years, in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting research, there are certain limitations in single forecasting methods. In traditional combined forecasting methods, such as the average weight combined method and the fixed weight combined method, the determination of the weight value cannot guarantee that the forecasting error at each moment is the smallest. In order to reduce the PV power forecasting error, this paper proposes a short‐term PV power dynamic weighted combination forecasting based on the least squares (LS) method. First, the random components of the PV power are extracted using the periodogram method, and then the dynamic weight value of each method is determined with the LS method. The combined model forecasts the random components of PV power and superimposes them with the periodic component to obtain the final PV power forecast. Using the data from a PV power plant in Ashland, USA, we verify the effectiveness of the proposed method proposed. © 2019 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.This paper will outline the simulation of a photovoltaic emulator. A photovoltaic emulator is a DC-DC converter which has similar electrical characteristics to a photovoltaic panel. A photovoltaic emulator allows PV systems to be analyzed in a controlled environment where using actual photovoltaic panels would produce inconsistent results for the PV system, due to variability in outside temperature and weather conditions.
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In this paper, a prefeasibility study is done for solar PV system for a village (Khoti) of Jhalawar, Rajasthan, India. This study is done to calculate PV system size and performance analysis of the system. In this study, According to the load of village, maximum energy required in kWh for a day is calculated and according to this energy a photovoltaic system of 587.7 kW is calculated. The performance analysis of 587.7 kW Photovoltaic system for both grid connected and off grid system is done by using an online tool Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS). PVGIS is fast, easy, and reliable tool for performance analysis of both grid connected and stand-alone PV system.
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Photovoltaic array simulations can be used to find better methods to implement maximum power point tracking(MPPT) control for efficient solar power systems.An accurate and practical model for photovoltaic arrays was developed using simulink blocks for the photovoltaic cell mechanisms.The model can simulate both the P-U and I-U characteristics of photovoltaic arrays for any insolation level and ambient temperature.The near linearity of the dP/dU versus I were illustrated by the simulations and then proved theoretically.The photovoltaic model is quite simple and fast.Simulations and measurements on a 300 W photovoltaic array show that the model is versatile and accurate and can be used to analyze photovoltaic array characteristics.
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This paper aims to investigate problem of the integration of a photovoltaic site been submitted under local weather conditions, located at Bouira city (Algeria) in a three-phase grid. In fact, Algeria has great assets to embark on the exploration of photovoltaic energy whether by its solar potential or by its large area. The study of photovoltaic systems with their integration into conventional electrical networks is still useful, which gives importance to this research. For this the photovoltaic system with MPPT control was simulated, the selected MPPT algorithm is based on the principle of disturb end observe (P&O). This is followed by a simulation of our photovoltaic system connected to a three-phase network.
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Study the output features of photovoltaic array to improve the reliability and the efficiency of solar power systems. A model for photovoltaic was developed using Matlab/Simulink blocks for the photovoltaic cell mechanisms. The characteristics of photovoltaic arrays are researched and curves are obtained. Simulations show that the devised model of photovoltaic power generation systems can be used to analyze photovoltaic characteristics.
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For problem of incorrect modeling method which takes environmental temperature instead of photovoltaic array temperature in existing simulation of solar photovoltaic arrays,the paper pointed out environmental temperature and actual working temperature of photovoltaic array should be distinguished in modelling of photovoltaic arrays.It analyzed relationship between temperature of photovoltaic array and environmental temperature as well as output power,and proposed a temperature prediction method of photovoltaic array based on BP neural network.At last,it compared predicting result with the measured one and got following conclusions: the method can predict temperature of photovoltaic array effectively and get better effect by use of data of the last day and the last three days.According to the conclusion,temperature of photovoltaic array of the day can be predicted by use of data of the last day in actual application.
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A Versatile simulation model for photovoltaic array is developed based on the DC physical model of photovoltaic module under Matlab environment. By the model,the I-V characteristics of photovoltaic array with different combinations can be simulated at any corresponding insolation level, ambient temperature and parameters of the photovoltaic module. In addition to that, the model includes the function of Maximum Power Point Tracking(MPPT) . It can be used in the dynamic simulation of photovoltaic systems and wind -solar hybrid systems.
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태양광발전소 두 곳을 샘플링하여 출력저하의 요인 중 우리나라 실정에 맞지 않는 입사각에 따른 태양전지 어레이 간의 음영에 의한 출력저하를 비교?분석하여 설비용량, 설비사양, 부지면적의 변화 없이 태양전지 어레이의 재배치를 통해 최대 출력을 낼 수 있는 태양전지 어레이의 최적 간격을 산정한다.
태양전지 어레이 1열 재배치 시에는 약 1.2[%], 2열 재배치 시에는 약 2.8[%], 3열 재배치 시에는 약 5.0[%]의 출력이 향상되었다. 또한 1열 재배치 시에는 태양전지 어레이 당 0.39[m], 2열 재배치 시에는 태양전지 어레이 당 0.82[m], 3열 재배치 시에는 태양전지 어레이 당 1.29[m]의 간격 이득을 얻었다. 태양전지 어레이 간격에 이득이 생기면서 음영의 영향을 받게 되는 시간이 점점 늦춰지게 되고 결국 출력의 향상이 나타나는 결과를 보였다.
태양전지 어레이 1열 재배치 시에는 약 1.2[%], 2열 재배치 시에는 약 2.8[%], 3열 재배치 시에는 약 5.0[%]의 출력이 향상되었다. 또한 1열 재배치 시에는 태양전지 어레이 당 0.39[m], 2열 재배치 시에는 태양전지 어레이 당 0.82[m], 3열 재배치 시에는 태양전지 어레이 당 1.29[m]의 간격 이득을 얻었다. 태양전지 어레이 간격에 이득이 생기면서 음영의 영향을 받게 되는 시간이 점점 늦춰지게 되고 결국 출력의 향상이 나타나는 결과를 보였다.
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This paper presents a new simplified method for analyzing the availability of photovoltaic potential on roofs. Photovoltaic systems on roofs are widespread as they represent a sustainable and safe investment and, therefore, a means of energy self-sufficiency. With the growth of photovoltaic systems, it is also crucial to correctly evaluate their global efficiency. Thus, this paper presents a comparison between known methods for estimating the photovoltaic potential (as physical, geographic and technical contributions) on a roof and proposes a new simplified method, that takes into account the economic potential of a building that already has installed a photovoltaic system. The measured values of generated electricity of the photovoltaic system were compared with calculated photovoltaic potential. In general, the annual physical, geographic, technical and economic potentials were 1273.7, 1253.8, 14.2 MWh, and 279.1 Wh, respectively. The analysis of all four potentials is essential for further understanding of the sustainable and safe investment in photovoltaic systems.
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