Spatio-temporal analysis of daily, seasonal and annual precipitation concentration in Jharkhand state, India
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Introduction Flood risks can be reduced by either reducing the probability or the consequences of a flooding. These consequences can be quantified with flood damage models. Such models determine flood damage based on the water depth and the land use. This thesis will investigate the need to also use the flood duration as input parameter. Problem definition Besides the water depth, also other factors determine the resulting flood damages. These factors are often not taken into account in flood damage models. One of these influences is the flood duration. The longer a flooding lasts, the larger the material damage, and especially damage due to interruption will be. Flood duration causes interruptions and extra material damages. Taking into account flood duration can, therefore, theoretically make flood damage models more accurate. Flood duration predictions are, however, at the moment rarely done. This thesis aims to get both a qualitative and quantitative understanding of flood duration and the importance of flood duration for damage assessments. Research This thesis aims to explore the possibilities of assessing flood duration for flood risk management. This is approached by the following steps. 1. Development of a better understanding of flood duration. By looking at different areas and flood threats, a flood type categorization was developed and durations were estimated for each flood type 2. Exploration of the influence of flood duration on damage. A modeling method to roughly estimate the duration-dependent damage was developed. The framework of this method may also be useful for future duration dependent flood damage models. 3. Two case studies were carried out to study flood duration and its influence on damage in more detail: First the Betuwe and Tieler & Culemburgerwaard area was studied and secondly the area threatened by a breach at the Parksluizen in Rotterdam was focused on. Different scenarios were used with varying breach locations, measures and use of outlet and drainage structures. Results 1. The most important factors which determine the flood duration are duration necessary to repair the breaches, the possibilities for drainage by gravity, the elevation and elevation variation in the area and the magnitude of the flood event. Flooding durations in the Netherlands vary between hours and about one year. 2. Adding flood duration as input to flood damage models adds a little extra accuracy. This is limited because flood duration is correlated with the water depth. With the current flood damage accuracy, incorporating flood duration is only useful for specific cost benefit analysis related to measures that aim to change the flood duration. Conclusions and recommendations Flood duration can be significant for large floods in low and endyked areas. In these cases flood duration can also have a significant impact on the damage. However, a complex economic model is necessary to quantify this. Therefore, flood duration can only reach its full value as an input, in combination with better economic modeling.
Flood stage
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The flood in the Chao Phraya River basin in 2011 caused 815 deaths and more than $45 billion in economic damage to Thailand. The industrial sector, the main contributor to the country’s economy, suffered especially devastating economic damage due to inundation of the industrial areas in the river basin. Seven industrial areas, where the total share of Japanese-affiliated firms was more than half, were most severely hit by the flood. In this study, a survey was conducted with Japanese-affiliated firms from February–March 2015 with the purpose of further strengthening their flood countermeasures in the future. The firms’ factories were asked which lessons from the 2011 flood they considered important and whether their experiences from the flood had been applied to strengthening their flood countermeasures. It was found that these factories, regardless of their inundation status in 2011, considered “preparation of a business continuity plan or manual for possible floods” to be the most important lesson from the 2011 flood. However, when it comes to actual implementation of flood countermeasures, the factories that were inundated in 2011 strengthened flood countermeasures much more than the factories with only indirect damage. In both groups, however, collaboration with business partners and local communities as well as use of reliable flood-related information were revealed to be the areas where further strengthening would be possible.
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In this study, the spatial distribution of the precipitation trend in Greece during a 50-year, 1951-2000, is presented. Twenty-three precipitation time series from stations evenly distributed over Greece are studied. In almost all of them, a decreasing precipitation trend is observed. The decreasing precipitation trend is greater in the northwest part of Greece, where the higher precipitation amounts occur. The geographical distribution covering the rates of the precipitation change all over Greece is presented through the use of ArcGIS geographical information system. The results of this analysis are determined mainly by the corresponding statistically significant decreasing precipitation trend during the cold period of the year, when on the average, the 80% of the annual precipitation amounts occur.
Trend analysis
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In order to analyze the change trend of precipitation in catchment of Miyun Reservoir,based on the long-term precipitation data obtained at 38 stations from 1956 to 2005,the Mann-Kendall method is used to study the change trend of extreme precipitation in one-day and three-days and the precipitation in flood period from July to August and annual average precipitation.In addition,the spatial distribution of precipitation is analyzed as well.The results shows that the precipitation in flood period has an obvious decreasing trend in almost whole catchment,and the annual precipitation and extreme values in one-day and three-days and the total amount of precipitation also shows an decreasing trend in the catchment of Hei river,Tang river and Bai river in Hebei province,while they don' t change significantly in Beijing area.
Trend analysis
Spatial change
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Daily precipitation data from 38 stations in Iran are analyzed for the period of 1960-2001 to evaluate the possible long term trend in annual and seasonal precipitation. The Mann-Kendall method was used to test the existence of trends, and the least square method to estimate the values of trend. The results show that the annual precipitation had a decreasing trend at stations in the west, northwest and southeast and an increasing trend at most of the stations in the other parts of the country. Most of the stations have shown a reduced precipitation during the spring. There is a significantly positive trend in the total number of rainy days during the year and for each season, while the mean daily precipitation over the rainy days has decreased at most of the stations.
The analysis of trend has also performed for different classes of intensities of daily precipitation. To do this, daily precipitation series for each station were sorted according to their magnitudes and categorized into 10 class intervals. The intensity thresholds for each class are defined separately for the year and for each season in a way that the sum of precipitation falling in that class equals 10% of the total annual or seasonal precipitation over the period 1960-2001. The results show that the type of variations of the total precipitation is mainly determined by the trend in heavy precipitation. For instance, for the stations (seasons) where total precipitation has a positive, large and often significant trend heavy precipitation shows an increasing trend and light precipitation shows a decreasing trend. For some other stations (seasons), where total precipitation has a large negative trend, there is negative trend in the upper intensity quantiles and a positive trend in lower intensity quantiles.
Trend analysis
Wet season
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This article explores seasonal as well as annual trends of precipitation in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) Pakistan over the period between 1980 and 2012. For the analysis of precipitation trends, non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s tests were applied. The assessment of precipitation data showed an annual increasing trend of precipitation in GB although this trend is not statistically significant. Seasonal analysis revealed least amount of precipitation occurs in the autumn season which is becoming drier. Trend analysis showed an increasing trend of precipitation in the other three seasons (winter, Spring and summer). The study revealed that the precipitation at Gupis is increasing significantly in winter, spring and summer seasons.
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On the basis of meteorological data in the Guanzhong Basin from 1959 to 2006,the Mann-Kendall test method was used to analyze the annual and seasonal precipitation trends and mutation.The results show that precipitation has shown a decreasing trend in general,the downward trend in precipitation in spring and autumn,while the upward trend in summer and winter,and annual mutation occurred in 1992 and since the beginning of the year the total precipitation begins to fall,to the 21st century is still showing a decreasing trend;mutation in spring occurred in 1994 and precipitation has a clear downward trend;change point in spring occurred in 1978 and precipitation begins to rise.Autumn precipitation mutates and declines since 1973.The winter precipitation keeps an increasing trend.
Trend analysis
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Dike
Detention basin
Flood control
Flood stage
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Flood forecasting
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Taking Dongfeng lake as an example,the application process of the flood zone during the flood period in 2003 was calculated by using hydrodynamic numerical model. In this study,the application process of the flood zone was divided into five stages in detail according to the hydrodynamic characteristics and functions. Meanwhile,the hydrodynamic characteristics,the flood propagation law of the flood zone,and the different effects on flood water level and discharge of up and down streams have been studied. According to the results,the flood water level of up and down streams can be reduced effectively at the beginning. And then,the flood zone can only make influence on the flood water level of upstream after the flood get through the flood zone.
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