Analysis of the Climate Characteristics of Thunderstorms in Fuding Area
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In order to reveal the climatic variation characteristics of thunderstorm in Fuding under global warming, Using the observational thunderstorm data of meteorological station in Fuding during 1971-2010,and the characteristics of thunderstorm were anlyzed by climate trend rate method and climate trend coefficient method.The results show that;①the annual average number of thunderstorm days is 48 d in Fuding and the total trend of thunderstorm has been decreased in the recent 40 years,the rate of its climate tendency is 2 d/10 a;②the thunderstorm has the obvious seasonal,about 56%thunderstorms occur in summer,Thunderstorm day is the most in August,and then decreases obviously in September,monthly characteristics of thunderstorm day are similar to those of air temperature and precipitation;③the first thunderstorm day is significantly delayed 4 d/10 a,the last thunderstorm day is significantly delayed 4.4 d/10 a,thus the duration of thunderstorm has been slight increased.Cite
By using the observed data from 20 weather stations in South China,the characteristics of diurnal,seasonal,multi-year variations and relative atmospheric physical parameters and circulation fields were demonstrated. The results show ed that the thunderstorm frequency peak from afternoon to the evening(9% at 12: 00(UTC,hereafter the same)),and least in the morning(2% at 03: 00). The higher thunderstorm frequency occurred in July and August( 35%),and the low er thunderstorm frequency in December and January( 1%).The annual and summer thunderstorm frequency decreased with a rate of-1% ·(10a)-1and-3. 5% ·(10a)-1from 1980 s to 21 thcentury,yet after 21 thcentury,it has a weak increasing trend. On the whole year,the ratio of thunderstorm precipitation and total precipitation was 48%,but in summer,the value was 64%. The variation of annual(summer) thunderstorm precipitation were relatively similar with annual(summer) thunderstorm frequency,their correlation coefficient was 0. 46(0. 71). In summer,accompany with the variation of thunderstorm frequency,the atmospheric circulation exhibits large-scale abnormally in east Asia. During higher thunderstorm frequency month,the western Pacific subtropical high was abnormally weaker. Meanw hile,there was abnormally ascending flow s in the upper-middle troposphere over the South China. In addition,from the view of thermal instability,the abnormally high total tolals index and abnormally high convective available potential energy index has significant relationship with thunderstorm frequency,their correlation coefficients were 0. 58 and 0. 76. The thunderstorm frequency has statistical relevance with the surface temperature,how ever,it requires substantial investigation to make sure that whether it is a response of thunderstorms thermal and dynamical factor to the global climate change.
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Thunderstorm is one of the most frequently disastrous weather in Wuwei of Gansu Province. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and changed trend of thunderstorm weather were analyzed by using the statistical methods based on thunderstorm data from 5 meteorological stations in Wuwei city during 1961- 2010,firstly. Combined the daily NCEP reanalysis data with 6 h temporal and 1° × 1° spatial resolution from April to October during 2001- 2010,the circulation pattern of thunderstorm weather were summarized through north- south airflow configuration. Results showed that the spatial distribution of thunderstorm weather in Wuwei was regionally obvious due to the altitude and topography,and the thunderstorm days in Tianzhu of southern mountain area was far more than those in other parts,which accounted for 40. 6% of the total thunderstorm days during 1961- 2010. The annual and decadal changes of thunderstorm days appeared declining tends on the whole,the declining trend in Tianzhu was most significant,and the climatic linear tendency was- 5. 819 d /10 a. The quasi- period of thunderstorm days in Wuwei was seven to eight years. The thunderstorm in Wuwei mainly occurred from June to August,which accounted for 70. 8% to 78. 6% of the annual total thunderstorm days.Additionally,the daily changes of thunderstorm weather in Wuwei were significant,mainly occurred from 12: 00 to 22: 00,especially from 13: 00 to 17: 00,and the average durations were 10 to 40 minutes. Regional characteristic of thunderstorm weather was very obvious,and the thunderstorm days reduced rapidly with the increase of thunderstorm station numbers. The circulation pattern of thunderstorm weather was divided into three categories in Wuwei city,i. e. northwest airflow,southwest airflow and westerly airflow types. To the thunderstorm with northwest airflow type,the cold advection on upper level was deep and slow- moving,which was beneficial to the occurrence of strong convective weather,the proportion of thunderstorm was the most. The cold air didn't remain after the weather system passed through Wuwei for the southwest airflow type,which wasn't conductive to the occurrence of strong convective,the proportion of thunderstorm was the least. The location of the upper vortex was to the north and the cold air was stronger for the westerly airflow type,which was more advantageous to strong convective weather occurrence,the proportion of thunderstorm was relatively higher.
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Based on the observation data in 4 stations of Hezhou during 1960-2009(Fuchuan during 1960-2009),the climate characteristics and the spatial and temporal distribution of the possible influencing factors of thunderstorm,regional differences of the first and last thunderstorm and changing trends,relationship between precipitation and temperature with thunderstorms had been studied.The results showed that the Thunderstorms of Hezhou were more in the south than north and had obvious annual variation,which presented an obvious decreasing trend in past 50 years;there was a violent annual changes in the first and last thunderstorms as well as their interval days;thunderstorms happened more in summer than in winter,whose monthly distribution presented a single-peak type,the thunderstorms took place mainly from February to September,the most in August,least in December.The average monthly number of thunderstorm days for many years showed a significant positive correlation with precipitation and temperature;unstable factor and station meteorological factors change had a good indication for forecasting thunderstorms in Hezhou.
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Thunderstorm rainfall is a major form of convective rainfall over Nigeria. Its contribution to total wet season rainfall increases from about 18% in the south to 36% in the north. The importance of thunderstorms lies in the fact that they contribute significantly to flooding episodes and soil erosion processes due to their high intensity and torrential characteristics. This paper examines the spatial and temporal variations in thunderstorm rainfall over Nigeria using daily rainfall data and associated weather information over a 30 year period (1960–1989) for 19 synoptic stations. Results show that the dry season distribution pattern of rainfall due to thunderstorms shows a general decrease from south to north similar to the total rainfall distribution pattern in the country. At the peak of the wet season (July–September) thunderstorm rainfall increases northwards up to around latitude 11°N when it begins to decrease. The effect of orography in enhancing thunderstorm rainfall across the country is also shown. Elementary linkage analysis was used to group the 19 synoptic stations into thunderstorm rainfall regions. Six regions were identified which showed internal coherence in terms of temporal fluctuations of thunderstorm rainfall. © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society
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With the data of thunderstorms in Bengbu from 1952 to 2012,the climatological variation trends,initial and ending dates,abrupt changes and periodicity features of thunderstorms during the recent 61 years are analyzed by means of climatic trends,assurance ratios,Mann-Kendall abrupt change test and Morlet wavelets analysis. The results show that the interannual thunderstorm variability is great and the mean annual thunderstorm days decline because of the reducing of thunderstorm days in summer. Most thunderstorms appear from April to September,of which July reaches the toppest. The initial thunderstorm dates occur in mid-March while the ending dates occur in late September. Interannual thunderstorm variability presents a trend of first increasing then decreasing and the significant abrupt change occurs in 1980. The thunderstorm days show 2- 4 years,10- 12 years and 16 years oscillating periods for inter-annual and inter-decadal variations.
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Abstract Summer is a dry season in northern Taiwan. By contrast, the Taipei basin, located in this region, has its maximum rainfall during summer (15 June–31 August), when 78% of this rainfall is contributed by afternoon thunderstorms. This thunderstorm activity occurs during only 20 days in summer. Because of the pronounced impacts on the well-being of three million people in the basin and the relative infrequency of occurrence, forecasting thunderstorm events is an important operational issue in the Taipei basin. The basin’s small size (30 km × 60 km), with two river exits and limited thunderstorm occurrence days, makes the development of a thunderstorm activity forecast model for this basin a great challenge. Synoptic analysis reveals a thunderstorm day may develop from morning synoptic conditions free of clouds/rain, with a NW–SE-oriented dipole located south of Taiwan and southwesterlies straddling the low and high of this dipole. The surface meteorological conditions along the two river valleys exhibit distinct diurnal variations of pressure, temperature, dewpoint depression, relative humidity, and land–sea breezes. The primary features of the synoptic conditions and timings of the diurnal cycles for the four surface variables are utilized to develop a two-step hybrid forecast advisory for thunderstorm occurrence. Step 1 validates the 24-h forecasts for the 0000 UTC (0800 LST) synoptic conditions and timings for diurnal variations for the first five surface variables on thunderstorm days. Step 2 validates the same synoptic and surface meteorological conditions (including sea-breeze onset time) observed on the thunderstorm day. The feasibility of the proposed forecast advisory is successfully demonstrated by these validations.
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Abstract This paper addresses spatial and temporal variability in the occurrence of thunderstorms and related precipitation in southern Poland between 1951 and 2010. The analysis was based on thunderstorm observations and daily precipitation totals (broken down into the few ranges) from 15 meteorological stations. It was found that precipitation accompanied an overwhelming majority of thunderstorms. The most frequent range of thunderstorm precipitation totals was 0.1–10.0 mm which accounted for 60% of all values while precipitation higher than 20.0 mm accounted only for ca. 8%. During the study period, long-term change in the number of days with thunderstorm precipitation within a certain range displayed no clear-cut trends. Exceptions included: 1) an increase in the number of days with thunderstorm precipitation in the lowest range of totals (0.1–10.0 mm) at Katowice, Tarnów, Rzeszów and Lesko and decrease at Mt. Kasprowy Wierch, 2) an increase in the range 10.1–20.0 mm at Zakopane and 20.1–30.0 mm at Opole, 3) a decrease of the top range (more than 30.0 mm) at Mt. Śnieżka. It was found that the heaviest thunderstorm precipitation events, i.e. totalling more than 30 mm, and those events that covered all or most of the study area, occurred at the time of air advection from the southern or eastern sectors and a passage of atmospheric fronts.
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Based on daily observation data of thunderstorm in Ruian during 1960～2006,the characteristics of thunderstorm were analyzed,such as annual,seasonal and monthly variability,the first and the last day of thunderstorm occurrence.The number of thunderstorm days was predicted by method of Markov chain model.The result showed that the average annual number of thunderstorm days in Ruian was 43 d,the average first date of thunderstorm was in February 26th,and the average last date was in October 16th.The seasonal variability features of it was obvious,the incidence of thunderstorm showed a declining trend since 1988.The prediction made by Markov chain model indicated that the days of thunderstorm would be from 32 d to 38 d in 2007.Finally,the suggestions about applications of the character and the prediction of thunderstorm days were put forward.
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This paper counted up the station thunderstorm gust days over the years and analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics by using 78 meteorological stations daily thunderstorm gust data in Anhui Province from 1971to 2010.It also analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of thunderstorm gust in recent 40years in Anhui Province by using Mann-Kendall method,wavelet analysis method,EOF decomposition method and etc.The results show as follows.There was a significant decreasing trend of thunderstorm gust days sum in Anhui Province.The most concentrated period of time for thunderstorm gust was in the summer from June to August,accounting for about 69%of the year.The diurnal variation of thunderstorm gust mainly showed single-peak structure,peaking in 15∶00to 16∶00BT.The spatial distribution characteristics had no obvious relationship with latitude,mainly had relationship with the influence of convective weather system and factors of regional and terrain.Thunderstorm days had a significant mutation at 1987in Anhui Province.Wavelet analysis showed that there were 10years and 6—8years significant oscillation cycle.In the time scale of 10years,thunderstorm gust days experienced 4alternating cycles from more to less,multiple thunderstorm gust periods were around 1995and from 2003to 2005,and the thunderstorm gust days would remain in the reduced state after 2010.For 10years the quasi-periodic,oscillation of 10years was small before 1995,but intense oscillation occurred after 1995.The contribution of the first four modal cumulative variance of EOF decomposition of thunderstorm gust days was up to 61%.The first mode could most reflected the main characteristics of thunderstorm days annual distribution in Anhui Province.The time coefficients of each mode had obvious interdecadal variation.
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