Correlations in fertility across generations: can low fertility persist?
54
Citation
58
Reference
10
Related Paper
Citation Trend
Abstract:
Correlations in family size across generations could have a major influence on human population size in the future. Empirical studies have shown that the associations between the fertility of parents and the fertility of children are substantial and growing over time. Despite their potential long-term consequences, intergenerational fertility correlations have largely been ignored by researchers. We present a model of the fertility transition as a cultural process acting on new lifestyles associated with fertility. Differences in parental and social influences on the acquisition of these lifestyles result in intergenerational correlations in fertility. We show different scenarios for future population size based on models that disregard intergenerational correlations in fertility, models with fertility correlations and a single lifestyle, and models with fertility correlations and multiple lifestyles. We show that intergenerational fertility correlations will result in an increase in fertility over time. However, present low-fertility levels may persist if the rapid introduction of new cultural lifestyles continues into the future.Keywords:
Human fertility
Total fertility rate
Russia’s fertility rate jumped after 2007, when new state measures were introduced to support families with children. This article analyzes the structure of this increase and factors that have contributed to a growth in the fertility rate. In 2007, the greatest gains were made in terms of second and subsequent births, while the fertility rate for first births has remained virtually unchanged. The effectiveness of demographic policy measures taken since early 2007 in regard to the fertility rate can be evaluated on the basis of statistical calculations as an additional amount of 0.259 of the total fertility rate, which amounts to 35.4 percent for second and subsequent births and 17.1 percent for all births. Thus, there are grounds to speak about positive shifts in fertility rate indicators not just for hypothetical generations, but also for real generations.
Total fertility rate
Cite
Citations (1)
Total fertility rate
Cite
Citations (0)
The fertility rate of Korea has rapidly decreased to the lowest in the World. The fertility rate below replacement fertility level might result in many social problems. First, this study investigated the cause of low fertility rate. Second, the theories of the relationship between fertility rate and women's employment were reviewed. The previous studies suggested that the fertility rate was not always related to women's employment negatively and there was mediating factors between them. Third, the various factors that mediated the negative relationship between fertility rate and women's employment were described in personal, family and social levels. Finally, this study suggested the policies and strategies to solve the low fertility rate problem in Korea.
Total fertility rate
Cite
Citations (0)
According to China 1 ‰ Population Sample Survey in 2005 and the 5th census and other information,the author describes through cross and relevance analyses the different fertility rates of floating population inside and outside a province and then explores the causes.The results are shown as follow: the floating population inside the province has a higher period fertility level than that outside,with general fertility rate respectively 45.47 ‰ and 34.17 ‰,and the total fertility rate 1.215 and 0.817;lifetime fertility inside the province is at a lower level,as the two-children and many-children rates inside are lower than that outside;there's a gap between the age structure of whole floating population and that of those floating for a marriage reason,which serves as the main cause why the outside period fertility level is lower;when the total fertility rate is used to describe the birth level of the outside floating population,it can not reflect the rise of the level owing to marriage and family changes,so it can not reflect the real lifetime fertility of the floating population outside the province.
Total fertility rate
Floating population
Population momentum
Cite
Citations (0)
Objective Concerns about the low fertility and population decline are increasing worldwide, and Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world. This study aims to comprehensively examine the policies implemented by local governments and investigate the longitudinal impact of fertility subsidy policy on the fertility rate in Korea. Method The study utilized data on the total fertility rate of local governments from 2014 to 2018. Data analysis was conducted via SPSS 25.0 and M-plus 8.0 software. Model fit was assessed using TLI (Tucker-Lewis Index), CFI (Comparative Fit Index), and RMSEA (Root Mean Square Error of Approximation). Results The results showed a significant relationship between the rate of change in the fertility subsidy and the rate of change in the fertility rate (B=.006, p<.01). Specifically, as the fertility subsidy increased rapidly over time, the fertility rate gradually decreased. Conversely, a gradual increase in the fertility subsidy led to a sharp decline in the fertility rate. Conclusion To effectively increase the fertility rate in South Korea, it is crucial to implement comprehensive policies that take into account social, economic, and demographic factors, as well as the findings of this study regarding fertility support. Highlights
Total fertility rate
Cite
Citations (0)
Abstract Fertility rates measure the level of childbearing in a population. They are important for determining both the growth rate of a population and its age structure. Key measures of fertility include crude birth rate, general fertility rate, age‐specific fertility rates, cohort completed fertility, and total fertility rate. In most countries in the world, fertility has fallen from high levels (five or more children per woman) to much lower levels (below three children per woman) since the mid‐nineteenth century, as a result of factors such as economic changes and contraceptive technology. Currently, the lowest fertility levels (below 1.5 children per woman) are found in some European and East Asian countries, while the highest fertility levels (above five children per woman) are found mainly in sub‐Saharan African countries.
Total fertility rate
Sub-replacement fertility
Cite
Citations (2)
Taiwan and a few Asian societies have had among the lowest fertility rates in the world for the past decade. Understanding the reasons behind the low fertility and designing policies accordingly to improve fertility has been a priority of governments in the region. It what follows we examine the low fertility rate in Taiwan by studying the trend of actual fertility rate and desired fertility rate in Taiwan using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Using the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) of contraception survey data between 1973 and 2004, we applied APC analyses on the actual fertility rate and desired fertility rate of married women. We found that youngest cohorts (the mid-cohort year 1983) had 10% higher actual fertility and 15% higher desired fertility compared to those who were born in 1959–1965, respectively. Additionally, we attributed current lowest-low fertility (at or below 1.3) to late marriages. There is a lag between the actual and desired fertility rates in KAP survey due to tempo effect. Furthermore, the trends of the cohort effects of both fertility rates in KAP surveys are reversing in Taiwan. Consequently, increase total fertility rate (TFR) should encourage marriage among the marriageable population and reward married and childbearing households.
Total fertility rate
Cohort effect
Sub-replacement fertility
Cite
Citations (11)
To analyze the fertility rate and to estimate the future population size of Shaanxi province, based on data from the sixth national population census.Fertility rate curve was used to analyze the fertility model and the abbreviated life table. The actual fertility rate was used as the main way to predict the future population size. General fertility rate was analyzed by factor analysis approach.The total fertility rate of Shaanxi province was 1.05 in 2010 while age-specific fertility rate contributed 101.27% to the general fertility rate. The expected population sizes would be 38 122 474 in 2015, 38 432 931 in 2020 and 38 121 904 in 2025 respectively.Birthrate would become lower and the population size appearing a negative increase in the year 2020, in Shaanxi province.
Total fertility rate
Cite
Citations (0)
While prior literature on the genetics of human fertility outcomes and attitudes has generally yielded significantly positive results in developed-country contexts, the implications of this dynamic for the potential for intergenerational increases in fertility are rarely raised. Here the prior literature on the subject is discussed in light of its implications for future changes due to selection, equations traditionally used in human demography are integrated into an evolutionary biological framework, and speculative calculations on the change in future fertility assuming already published numbers for parities and heritability are conducted. Limitations and overall conclusions are discussed.
Human fertility
Total fertility rate
Cite
Citations (1)