Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Fertility Rate: Analysis of 26,224 Married Women in Taiwan
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Taiwan and a few Asian societies have had among the lowest fertility rates in the world for the past decade. Understanding the reasons behind the low fertility and designing policies accordingly to improve fertility has been a priority of governments in the region. It what follows we examine the low fertility rate in Taiwan by studying the trend of actual fertility rate and desired fertility rate in Taiwan using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Using the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) of contraception survey data between 1973 and 2004, we applied APC analyses on the actual fertility rate and desired fertility rate of married women. We found that youngest cohorts (the mid-cohort year 1983) had 10% higher actual fertility and 15% higher desired fertility compared to those who were born in 1959–1965, respectively. Additionally, we attributed current lowest-low fertility (at or below 1.3) to late marriages. There is a lag between the actual and desired fertility rates in KAP survey due to tempo effect. Furthermore, the trends of the cohort effects of both fertility rates in KAP surveys are reversing in Taiwan. Consequently, increase total fertility rate (TFR) should encourage marriage among the marriageable population and reward married and childbearing households.Keywords:
Total fertility rate
Cohort effect
Sub-replacement fertility
Russia’s fertility rate jumped after 2007, when new state measures were introduced to support families with children. This article analyzes the structure of this increase and factors that have contributed to a growth in the fertility rate. In 2007, the greatest gains were made in terms of second and subsequent births, while the fertility rate for first births has remained virtually unchanged. The effectiveness of demographic policy measures taken since early 2007 in regard to the fertility rate can be evaluated on the basis of statistical calculations as an additional amount of 0.259 of the total fertility rate, which amounts to 35.4 percent for second and subsequent births and 17.1 percent for all births. Thus, there are grounds to speak about positive shifts in fertility rate indicators not just for hypothetical generations, but also for real generations.
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The present investigation was conducted to demographic estimation consists of the attempt to measure values of basic demographic parameters, such as the birth rate, the death rate or the level of total fertility and mortality in terms of size and age structure of over time. Though birth is a biological process and fertility is a current important issue in our country. Data were collected from 212 respondents with a questionnaire to estimate the levels and trends of naming fertility and mortality. A systematic and comprehensive exposition technique was used by Brass Method. The highest total fertility rate was in age group ‘25-29’ and birth rate was 0.00155 and the overall total fertility rate was 3.068. The probability of surviving was highest in age group ‘25-29’ for both sexes. All others factors were affected for higher fertility in age group ’25-29’, there will be needed for further policy making. The present findings would be helpful for the social and government planners and policy makers.
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Abstract A comparison of the proportionate age distributions for negroes enumerated in the decennial censuses of the United States in the first half of the rorh century indicates that by 1850, negro fertility apparently had been declining for at least 20 years. This paper develops the relationship of the age distribution of a declining fertility population, where the decline has persisted for less than 25 years, to the stable population with the same current schedules of fertility and mortality. This relationship is used to estimate the negro birth rate and total fertility as of 1850. In turn, these estimates and the relationship of the age distributions of two stable populations with different fertility are used to estimate the negro birth rate and total fertility as of 1830.
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The French-Canadian censuses of 1666-1667, and 1681 are analyzed to throw light on the alleged phenomenal fertility of the early settlers. The crude birth rate,total fertility rate, gross reproduction rate, and fertility ratios were all exceptionally high, but marital fertility rates were approximately at the level of similar rates in several European countries during the following two centuries. This suggests that the apparent high fertility is largely attributable to the high frequency and early age of marriage.
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Abstract Fertility rates measure the level of childbearing in a population. They are important for determining both the growth rate of a population and its age structure. Key measures of fertility include crude birth rate, general fertility rate, age‐specific fertility rates, cohort completed fertility, and total fertility rate. In most countries in the world, fertility has fallen from high levels (five or more children per woman) to much lower levels (below three children per woman) since the mid‐nineteenth century, as a result of factors such as economic changes and contraceptive technology. Currently, the lowest fertility levels (below 1.5 children per woman) are found in some European and East Asian countries, while the highest fertility levels (above five children per woman) are found mainly in sub‐Saharan African countries.
Total fertility rate
Sub-replacement fertility
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Summary This paper describes the changes that have taken place in fertility in Latvia during the last 100 years. It shows that the decline in fertility in Latvia as well as in neighbouring Estonia began earlier than in other parts of the Russian Empire. Marital fertility began to fall during the last quarter of the nineteenth century. During the last 20 years the total period fertility rate has varied between 1.7 and 2.0, but the total cohort fertility rate has been falling. Socio-economic differences in fertility persist, although they have become smaller. Birth control is widely practised in the Latvian SSR. In all major socio-economic groups of the population most people consider the two-child family as ideal. Childless and large families are rare. The mean ideal number of children (2.1-2.6) is greater than the actual, desired or expected family size.
Sub-replacement fertility
Latvian
Total fertility rate
Quarter (Canadian coin)
Falling (accident)
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