Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union
Lina MurBeatriz Martínez‐LópezSolenne CostardAna de la TorreBryony A. JonesMarta Martínez‐AvilésFernando Sánchez‐VizcaínoMaría MuñozDirk U. PfeifferJosé Manuel Sánchez‐VizcaínoBarbara Wieland
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Abstract:
The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.Keywords:
Wild boar
African Swine Fever
Domestic pig
Europe is currently experiencing a long-lasting African swine fever (ASF) epidemic, both in domestic pigs and wild boar. There is great concern that carcasses of infected wild boar may act as long-term virus reservoirs in the environment. We evaluated the tenacity of ASF virus (ASFV) in tissues and body fluids from experimentally infected domestic pigs and wild boar, which were stored on different matrices and at different temperatures. Samples were analysed at regular intervals for viral genome and infectious virus. ASFV was most stable in spleen or muscles stored at −20 °C and in blood stored at 4 °C. In bones stored at −20 °C, infectious virus was detected for up to three months, and at 4 °C for up to one month, while at room temperature (RT), no infectious virus could be recovered after one week. Skin stored at −20 °C, 4 °C and RT remained infectious for up to three, six and three months, respectively. In urine and faeces, no infectious virus was recovered after one week, irrespective of the matrix. In conclusion, tissues and organs from decomposing carcasses that persist in the environment for a long time can be a source of infection for several months, especially at low temperatures.
Wild boar
Domestic pig
African Swine Fever
Classical swine fever
BOAR
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After the extensive spread of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) genotype II in Eastern Europe, the first case of African swine fever (ASF) in Estonia was diagnosed in September 2014. By the end of 2019, 3971 ASFV-positive wild boars were found, and 27 domestic pig outbreaks were reported. A selection of ASFV isolates from wild boar and domestic pigs (during the period of September 2014–2019) was molecularly characterized using standardized genotyping procedures. One of the proven markers to characterize this virus is the central variable region (CVR) within the B602L gene. In summer 2015, a new ASFV genotype II CVR variant 2 (GII-CVR2) was confirmed in Estonia. The results suggest that the GII-CVR2 variant was only confirmed in wild boar from a limited area in southern Estonia in 2015 and 2016. In addition to GII-CVR2, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) that resulted in amino acid change was identified within the genotype II CVR variant 1 (GII-CVR1). The GII-CVR1/SNP1 strain was isolated in Estonia in November 2016. Additional GII-CVR1/SNP1 cases were confirmed in two neighbouring counties, as well as in one outbreak farm in June 2017. Based on the available data, no GII-CVR2 and GII-CVR1/SNP1 have been reported by other affected European countries. The spread of variant strains in Estonia has been limited over time, and restricted to a relatively small area.
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African Swine Fever
Domestic pig
Molecular Epidemiology
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African swine fever virus (ASFV) is spreading throughout Eurasia and there is no vaccine nor treatment available, so the control is based on the implementation of strict sanitary measures. These measures include depopulation of infected and in-contact animals and export restrictions, which can lead to important economic losses, making currently African swine fever (ASF) the greatest threat to the global swine industry. ASF has been endemic on the island of Sardinia since 1978, the longest persistence of anywhere in Eurasia. In Sardinia, eradication programs have failed, in large part due to the lack of farm professionalism, the high density of wild boar and the presence of non-registered domestic pigs (free-ranging pigs). In order to clarify how the virus is transmitted from domestic to wild swine, we examined the interaction between free-ranging pigs and wild boar in an ASF-endemic area of Sardinia. To this end, a field study was carried out on direct and indirect interactions, using monitoring by camera trapping in different areas and risk points. Critical time windows (CTWs) for the virus to survive in the environment (long window) and remain infectious (short window) were estimated, and based on these, the number of indirect interactions were determined. Free-ranging pigs indirectly interacted often with wild boar (long window = 6.47 interactions/day, short window = 1.31 interactions/day) and these interactions (long window) were mainly at water sources. They also directly interacted 0.37 times per day, especially between 14:00 and 21:00 h, which is much higher than for other interspecific interactions observed in Mediterranean scenarios. The highly frequent interactions at this interspecific interface may help explain the more than four-decade-long endemicity of ASF on the island. Supporting that free-ranging pigs can act as a bridge to transmit ASFV between wild boar and registered domestic pigs. This study contributes broadly to improving the knowledge on the estimation of frequencies of direct and indirect interactions between wild and free-ranging domestic swine. As well as supporting the importance of the analysis of interspecific interactions in shared infectious diseases, especially for guiding disease management. Finally, this work illustrates the power of the camera-trapping method for analyzing interspecific interfaces.
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African Swine Fever
Domestic pig
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We detected African swine fever virus (ASFV) from a wild boar in Singapore. In <72 hours, we confirmed and reported ASFV p72 genotype II, CD2v serogroup 8, and IGR-II variant by using a combination of real-time PCR and whole-genome sequencing. Continued biosurveillance will be needed to monitor ASFV in Singapore.
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African Swine Fever
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Basing on Polish experience of about 5 years (since the presence of the African swine fever (ASF) in this country, starting from February 17th, 2014) and in accordance with literature the importance of the disease in wild boar is charaterised. ASF belongs to the most dangerous, very contagious diseases occurring in domestic swine and wild boar in Eurasia. In Europe, including Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Belgium ASF is existing at present and was diagnosed for short time in the frame of the Eurasian pandemy. There is a serious concern of spreading of the virus of ASF (ASFV) to other countries of Europe, not only by wild boar. However the reservoir of ASFV in this animal is playing a very important role in the maintenance of the virus and infection of pigs. Long lasting existence of ASFV in the environmnent is connected with the very high resistance to antiviral environmental factors. Following the lack of an effective immunogenic vaccine against ASF the disease can only be controlled by administrative measures. Additionally the important and recommended procedure is the significant reduction of the wild boar population. Probability of eradication of ASFV from wild boar is increased after adding quick carcass removal simultaneously by respecting biosecurity rules. If effectively implemented, fencing is more useful to delineating zones rather than adding substantially to increased efficiency of ASF control. However, segments of fencing will be particularly usefull in theses areas, where carcasses removal or intensive hunting is difficult to implement.
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African Swine Fever
Fencing
Biosecurity
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Since the first introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into the European wild boar population in 1957, the question of virus survival in carcasses of animals that succumbed to the disease has been discussed. The causative African swine fever virus (ASFV) is known to be very stable in the environment. Thus, carcasses of infected wild boar could play a major role as ASFV reservoir and thereby help to locally maintain and spread the disease in wild boar populations. To minimize this risk, removal of wild boar carcasses in ASF affected areas is regarded to be crucial for effective disease control. If removal is not feasible, carcasses are usually disposed by burial on the spot to avoid direct contact of wild boar to the infection source. In this study, carcasses of ASFV infected wild boar buried in Lithuania at different time points and locations have been excavated and retested for the presence of infectious ASFV by in vitro assays and for viral genome by qPCR. Soil samples potentially contaminated by body fluids have been additionally tested for viral genome. In seventeen out of twenty burial sites, samples of excavated carcasses were positive for ASFV genome. However, in none of the carcass samples ASFV could be isolated. On seven sites soil samples contained ASF viral DNA. These results unexpectedly negate the long-term persistence of infectious ASFV in wild boar carcasses independent from the burial time. In this context, sensitivity of ASFV isolation from carcass samples versus susceptibility of animals and doses needed for oral inoculation has to be further investigated. Furthermore, research is required to consider alternative ASF infection sources and drivers in the infection cycle among wild boar.
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African Swine Fever
BOAR
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African swine fever virus (ASFV) was detected in wild boar in eastern Poland in early 2014. So far, 65 cases of ASFV infection in wild boar have been recognised. The methods used for ASFV detection included highly specific real-time PCR with a universal probe library (UPL), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and an immunoperoxidase test (IPT) for identification of anti-ASFV antibodies. The positive ASF cases were located near the border with Belarus in Sokółka and Białystok counties. Some of the countermeasures for disease prevention include early ASF diagnosis by ASFV DNA identification as well as detection of specific antibodies by systematic screening. The aim of this study was to assess the current ASF status in a Polish population of wild boar during the last two years (2014-2015).
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African Swine Fever
Immunoperoxidase
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African swine fever (ASF) is an emerging viral contagious disease affecting domestic pigs (DP) and wild boar (WB). ASF causes significant economic damage to the pig industry worldwide due to nearly 100% mortality and the absence of medical treatments. Since 2019, an intensive spread of ASF has been observed in the Russian Far East region. This spread raises concerns for epidemiologists and ecologists given the potential threat to the WB population, which is an essential member of the region's wild ungulates and provides a notable share of food resources for predatory species. This study aims to determine the genotype of ASF virus circulating in the region, reveal the spatio-temporal patterns of the ASF outbreaks' emergence, and assess the potential reduction of the regional fauna because of expected depopulation of WB. The first historical case of ASF in the study region was caused by an African swine fever virus (ASFV) isolated from DPs and belonging to Genotype 2, CVR1; IGR-2 (TRS +). Sequencing results showed no significant differences among ASFV strains currently circulating in the Russian Federation, Europe, and China. The spatiotemporal analysis with the space-time permutations model demonstrated the presence of six statistically significant clusters of ASF outbreaks with three clusters in DPs and one cluster in WBs. DP outbreaks prevail in the north-west regions of the study area, while northern regions demonstrate a mixture of DP and WB outbreaks. Colocation analysis did not reveal a statistically significant pattern of grouping of one category of outbreaks around the others. The possible damage to the region's fauna was assessed by modeling the total body mass of wild ungulates before and after the wild boars' depopulation, considering a threshold density of WB population of 0.025 head/km 2 , according to the currently in force National Plan on the ASF Eradication in Russia. The results suggest the total mass of ungulates of the entire study region will likely decrease by 8.4% (95% CI: 4.1–13.0%), while it may decrease by 33.6% (19.3–46.1%) in the Primorsky Krai, thereby posing an undeniable threat to the predatory species of the region.
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African Swine Fever
Domestic pig
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Wild boars are natural hosts for African swine fever (ASF). The ASF virus (ASFV) can persist for long periods in the environment, such as in ticks and contaminated products, which may be sources of infection for wild boar populations. African swine fever was eradicated in domestic pig populations in Spain in 1995, after 35 years of significant effort. To determine whether ASFV can persist in wild boar hosts after it has been eradicated from domestic pigs and to study the role of wild boar in helping ASFV persist in the environment, we checked for the presence of ASFV in wild boars in Doñana National Park, one of the largest natural habitats of wild boar in Spain and one of the last areas where ASF was endemic prior its eradication. Samples from 158 animals collected between 2006 and 2010 were analysed using serological and nucleic acid-based diagnostic techniques recommended by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). None of the samples was found to be positive. These results confirm the absence of disease in wildlife in what was once one of the areas most affected by ASF in Spain, and they suggest that wild boars play a limited role in ASFV persistence. These results confirm that ASFV cannot persist in isolated wild boar populations for long periods of time without the interaction of other factors such as re-infection by contact with domestic pigs or by feeding on contaminated swill.
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African Swine Fever
Domestic pig
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The European Commission requested that EFSA provide study designs for the investigation of four research domains according to major gaps in knowledge identified by EFSA in a report published in 2019: i) the patterns of seasonality of African Swine Fever (ASF) in wild boar and domestic pigs in the EU; ii) the epidemiology of ASF in wild boar; iii) survival of ASF virus (ASFV) in the environment and iv) transmission of ASFV by vectors. In this Scientific Opinion, the third research domain on ASFV survival is addressed. Nine research objectives were proposed by the working group and broader ASF expert networks, such as ASF stop, ENETWILD, VectorNet, AHAW network and the AHAW Panel Experts. Of the nine research objectives, only one was prioritised and elaborated into a general protocol/study design research proposal, pertaining ASFV survival in feed and bedding. To investigate the survival of ASFV in feed, bedding and roughage, laboratory survival studies are proposed. To investigate possible risk mitigation measures, proof-of-concept approaches should be investigated.
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African Swine Fever
European commission
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