The Psychology of Causal Perception and Reasoning
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Abstract Causal beliefs and reasoning are deeply embedded in many parts of our cognition. We are clearly ‘causal cognizers’, as we easily and automatically (try to) learn the causal structure of the world, use causal knowledge to make decisions and predictions, generate explanations using our beliefs about the causal structure of the world, and use causal knowledge in many other ways. Because causal cognition is so ubiquitous, psychological research into it is itself an enormous topic, and literally hundreds of people have devoted entire careers to the study of it. Causal cognition can be divided into two rough categories: causal learning and causal reasoning. The former encompasses the processes by which we learn about causal relations in the world at both the type and token levels; the latter refers to the ways in which we use those causal beliefs to make further inferences, decisions, predictions, and so on.Keywords:
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Abstract Previous research has established that infants are unable to perceive causality until 6¼ months of age. The current experiments examined whether infants’ ability to engage in causal action could facilitate causal perception prior to this age. In Experiment 1, 4½‐month‐olds were randomly assigned to engage in causal action experience via Velcro sticky mittens or not engage in causal action because they wore non‐sticky mittens. Both groups were then tested in the visual habituation paradigm to assess their causal perception. Infants who engaged in causal action – but not those without this causal action experience – perceived the habituation events as causal. Experiment 2 used a similar design to establish that 4½‐month‐olds are unable to generalize their own causal action to causality observed in dissimilar objects. These data are the first to demonstrate that infants under 6 months of age can perceive causality, and have implications for the mechanisms underlying the development of causal perception.
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This article deals with the role of time in causal models in the social sciences, in particular in structural causal modeling, in contrast to time-free models. The aim is to underline the importance of time-sensitive causal models. For this purpose, it also refers to the important discussion on time and causality in the philosophy of science, and examines how time is taken into account in demography and in economics as examples of social sciences. Temporal information is useful to the extent that it is placed in a correct causal structure, and thus further corroborating the causal mechanism or generative process explaining the phenomenon under consideration. Despite the fact that the causal ordering of variables is more relevant for explanatory purposes than the temporal order, the former should nevertheless take into account the time-patterns of causes and effects, as these are often episodes rather than single events. For this reason in particular, it is time to put time at the core of our causal models.
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Abstract Causal beliefs and reasoning are deeply embedded in many parts of our cognition. We are clearly ‘causal cognizers’, as we easily and automatically (try to) learn the causal structure of the world, use causal knowledge to make decisions and predictions, generate explanations using our beliefs about the causal structure of the world, and use causal knowledge in many other ways. Because causal cognition is so ubiquitous, psychological research into it is itself an enormous topic, and literally hundreds of people have devoted entire careers to the study of it. Causal cognition can be divided into two rough categories: causal learning and causal reasoning. The former encompasses the processes by which we learn about causal relations in the world at both the type and token levels; the latter refers to the ways in which we use those causal beliefs to make further inferences, decisions, predictions, and so on.
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This article deals with the role of time in causal models in the social sciences. The aim is to underline the importance of time-sensitive causal models, in contrast to time-free models. The relation between time and causality is important, though a complex one, as the debates in the philosophy of science show. In particular, an outstanding issue is whether one can derive causal ordering from time ordering. The article examines how time is taken into account in demography and in economics as examples of social sciences in which considerations about time may diverge. We then present structural causal modeling as a modeling strategy that, while not essentially based on temporal information, can incorporate it in a more or less explicit way. In particular, we argue that temporal information is useful to the extent that it is placed in a correct causal structure, thus further corroborating the causal mechanism or generative process explaining the phenomenon under consideration. Despite the fact that the causal ordering of variables is more relevant than the temporal order for explanatory purposes, in establishing causal ordering the researcher should nevertheless take into account the time-patterns of causes and effects, as these are often episodes rather than single events. For this reason in particular, it is time to put time at the core of our causal models.
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Causal inference is a study of causal relationships between events and the statistical study of inferring these relationships through interventions and other statistical techniques. Causal reasoning is any line of work toward determining causal relationships, including causal inference. This paper explores the relationship between causal reasoning and various fields of software engineering. This paper aims to uncover which software engineering fields are currently benefiting from the study of causal inference and causal reasoning, as well as which aspects of various problems are best addressed using this methodology. With this information, this paper also aims to find future subjects and fields that would benefit from this form of reasoning and to provide that information to future researchers. This paper follows a systematic literature review, including; the formulation of a search query, inclusion and exclusion criteria of the search results, clarifying questions answered by the found literature, and synthesizing the results from the literature review. Through close examination of the 45 found papers relevant to the research questions, it was revealed that the majority of causal reasoning as related to software engineering is related to testing through root cause localization. Furthermore, most causal reasoning is done informally through an exploratory process of forming a Causality Graph as opposed to strict statistical analysis or introduction of interventions. Finally, causal reasoning is also used as a justification for many tools intended to make the software more human-readable by providing additional causal information to logging processes or modeling languages.
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Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit exceptional abilities for causal analysis between concepts in numerous societally impactful domains, including medicine, science, and law. Recent research on LLM performance in various causal discovery and inference tasks has given rise to a new ladder in the classical three-stage framework of causality. In this paper, we advance the current research of LLM-driven causal discovery by proposing a novel framework that combines knowledge-based LLM causal analysis with data-driven causal structure learning. To make LLM more than a query tool and to leverage its power in discovering natural and new laws of causality, we integrate the valuable LLM expertise on existing causal mechanisms into statistical analysis of objective data to build a novel and practical baseline for causal structure learning. We introduce a universal set of prompts designed to extract causal graphs from given variables and assess the influence of LLM prior causality on recovering causal structures from data. We demonstrate the significant enhancement of LLM expertise on the quality of recovered causal structures from data, while also identifying critical challenges and issues, along with potential approaches to address them. As a pioneering study, this paper aims to emphasize the new frontier that LLMs are opening for classical causal discovery and inference, and to encourage the widespread adoption of LLM capabilities in data-driven causal analysis.
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