Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017

Abstract As the participants of Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project (EOPC PPP), Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University (SAI) and Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO) have accumulated ∼1800 days of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) predictions since 2012 till 2017, which were up to 90 days into the future, and made by four techniques: auto-regression (AR), least squares collocation (LSC), and neural network (NNET) forecasts from SAI, and least-squares plus auto-regression (LS + AR) forecast from SHAO. The predictions were finally combined into SAI-SHAO COMB EOP prediction. In this work we present five-year real-time statistics of the combined prediction and compare it with the uncertainties of IERS bulletin A predictions made by USNO.