Parity, Family Size Preference and the "Value Stretch"

A two-wave survey of women in their reproductive years living in poverty areas of New York City is used to investigate family size preferences among the poor. The hypotheses that parity affects family size preference and that current parity affects future parity are supported. Implications for future trends in family size preference and for family planning programs are discussed. Most explanations of differential reproductive patterns are based upon the assumption of a direct and one-directional causal link from desired family size to actual family size (Figure 1, A) (Easterlin, 1969; Freedman, 1974; Namboodiri, 1970; Votey, 1969). Underlying this assumption is a 'motivationalist" view of reproductive behavior (Polgar, 1972). While it is usually recognized that voluntary natality regulation does not operate perfectly, the extent and complex causation of failures in family planning have not been given sufficient attention in most studies of differential birth rates. We argue that besides family size preference affecting parity, two additional causal mechanisms are operative (Figure 1, B): I) parity affects family size preference (lines a); and 2) present parity affects future parity (line b). Furthermore, we argue that the concept of "value stretch" (Rodman, 1963) informs the relationship between desired and actual family size among the poor. To investigate these relationships in this paper we examine preference and parity differences in pregnancy experience over a two-year span among women of low income neighborhoods in a metropolitan area. A number of studies in social psychology have emphasized that behavior influences attitudes at least as often as attitudes determine behavior (Deutscher, 1973). Yet, most demographic analyses neglect