CONSEQUENCES OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ON OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO EARTHQUAKES

Earthquake prediction is a new technology soon to be added to the other adjustments which can be used by a community to cope with the earthquake hazard. Governmental and business organisations will be faced with new challenges when a specific earthquake prediction is issued for their area. Research on organisational response to such a prediction indicates that there will be significant positive and negative consequences. With an extended lead time of several years the risk of death and injury can be brought to near zero but the resulting local economic recession will be of major proportions. When scientifically based earthquake predictions become available in the near future, communities will have one more weapon in the arsenal being used (or at least available for use) to minimize the losses and disruption which damaging earth­ quakes produce (White and Haas; Ayre ^ * ). Where does this potential new coping mechanism or adjustment fit into the picture? What will be the impact of earthquake prediction on the use of and priority given to other earthquake hazard mitigation measures? Will this new product of the scientific enterprise increase or decrease social risk generally? In this paper we first examine the set of adjustments currently available for use in coping with the earthquake threat. We then describe the characteristics of the early earthquake predictions and outline what current research findings indicate will be the short-term consequences of a specific earthquake prediction for a city. Finally, we estimate how the availability of earthquake prediction will alter the set of adjustments which a city makes to the earth­ quake hazard.