Development and validation a nomogram for assessing survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy.

BACKGROUND & AIM Assessing the average survival rate of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy is important for making critical decisions in everyday clinical practice. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram for assessing the overall survival probability for such patients. METHODS The putative prognostic indicators for constructing the nomogram were identified using multivariable Cox regression and model selection based on the Akaike information criterion. The nomogram was subjected to internal and external validation. The nomogram endpoints were death within 1-, 3-, and 5-years. RESULTS A consecutive sample of 522 HCC patients who underwent potentially curative hepatectomy were retrospectively analyzed. Age, BCLC stage, tumor size, alanine transaminase, alpha fetal protein, and serum prealbumin were included in the final model. The nomogram's discriminative ability was good in the training set (C-index was 0.74 for 1-year, 0.73 for 3-year, 0.70 for 5-year) and was validated using both an internal bootstrap method (C-index was 0.73 for 1-year, 0.72 for 3-year, 0.69 for 5-year) and an external validating set (C-index was 0.72 for 1-year, 0.72 for 3-year, 0.69 for 5-year). The calibration plots for the endpoints showed optimal agreement between the nomogram's assessment and actual observations. CONCLUSIONS The nomogram (an Excel-based tool) can be useful for assessing the probability of survival at 1-, 3-, and 5-years in patients with HCC after hepatectomy.