Modelización de la captura y fases de desarrollo de la pesquería de la jaiba azul (Callinectes sapidus) en la Laguna Madre, Tamaulipas, México

The average annual catch of the blue crab ( Callinectes sapidus ) (BC) fishery in Tamaulipas, Mexico is estimated at 2 733 T, of which the 82 % is caught in the Laguna Madre, which is considered to be exploited to the maximum of its capacity. The objective of the present investigation was to model the annual catch of the BC in the Laguna Madre, Tamaulipas, by adjusting mathematical functions of the linear and nonlinear (or curvilinear) type, to the time series from 1998 to 2012. In addition, the phases of development of the fishery, according to several generalized models, were identified. We used the information theory approach and multimodel inference procedure (MMI). Eleven linear and nonlinear regression models were fitted. For the selection of models, the corrected Akaike corrected (AICc) and Bayesian (BIC) information criteria were used. For the MMI, the level ∆i < 2 of plausibility of AICc and BIC was considered. The models chosen for the MMI were compound, growth, exponential, logistic, potential and the sigmoid, with the first four models being considered the most suitable of all those cited. The average models of the MMI presented values of β 0 and β 1: 0.939 and 0.377 respectively, according to CIAc; and 0.952 and 0.344 respectively, according to the CIB. Only the composite and logistic models showed statistical significance in their two regression pa-rameters ( β 0 and β 1 ). The fishery sustainability index revealed six catch periods and a decrease in magnitude of catch changes. The data series analyzed includes two life cycles according to the Csirke and Caddy models. The results showed that at the end of the studied period the fishery was in collapse  and  decay.