Strong ground motion synthesis for a M=7.2 earthquake in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece using Empirical Green`s functions

We synthesize strong ground motion at three sites from a M=7.2 earthquake along the MW-trending Gulf of Cornith seismic zone. We model rupture along an 80 segment of the zone. The entire length of the fault, if activated at one time, can lead to an event comparable to that of the 1995 Kobe earthquake. With the improved digital data now routinely available, it becomes possible to use recordings of small earthquakes as empirical Green`s functions to synthesize potential ground motion for future large earthquakes. We developed a suite of 100 rupture scenarios for the earthquake and computed the commensurate strong ground motion time histories. We synthesized strong ground motion with physics-based solutions of earthquake rupture and applied physical bounds on rupture parameters. The synthesized ground motions obtained are source and site specific. By having a suite of rupture scenarios of hazardous earthquakes for a fixed magnitude and identifying the hazard to a site from the statistical distribution of engineering parameters, we have introduced a probabilistic component to the deterministic hazard calculation. The time histories suggested for engineering design are the ones that most closely match either the average or one standard deviation absolute accelerations response values.