Prediction of long-term disability in multiple sclerosis.

Background: Little is known about the predictive value of neurophysiological measures for the long-term course of multiple sclerosis (MS).Objective: To prospectively investigate whether combined visual (VEP) and motor evoked potentials (MEP) allow prediction of disability over 14 years.Methods: A total of 30 patients with relapsing–remitting and secondary progressive MS were prospectively investigated with VEPs, MEPs and the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at entry (T0) and after 6, 12 and 24 months, and with cranial MRI scans at entry (T2-weighted and gadolinium-enhanced T1-weighted images). EDSS was again assessed at year 14 (T4). The association between evoked potential (EP), magnetic resonance (MR) data and EDSS was measured using Spearman’s rank correlation. Multivariable linear regression was performed to predict EDSST4 as a function of z-transformed EP-latenciesT0. The model was validated using a jack-knife procedure and the potential for improving it by inclusion of additional baseline var...