Migration estimation in India : a monsoon migration model

Rural-Urban and Rural-Rural migration has become one of the most common phenomena of population demographic changes. Several factors which contribute towards the improvement of the livelihood and opportunities to the migrated labourers have been studied. More than 69 per cent of the 1.21 billion people live in rural India (2011 Census) and agriculture is their main source of income. Agriculture contributes to 18 per cent to the GDP of India. Due to lack of adequate public irrigation facilities, most of these farmers are dependent heavily on monsoon as the main source of water for agriculture. Since a large percentage of these farmers are into subsistence farming, they lack the capital required to set up their own irrigation facilities. When the monsoon fails, or when there is excess rain, there is loss of crop and hence rural-to-urban migration results. There are many factors influencing rural to rural and rural to urban migration. One such important factor is agricultural distress. Agriculture being predominantly dependent on monsoon in India, there is an immediate need in accessing the relationship among agriculture, migration and rainfall. This paper analyses the role of quantum of rainfall in determining the rate of migration with empirical evidence from India and proposes a model to estimate the migration rate based on the quantum of rainfall.