Incorporation of wind power probabilities into long-term energy system development analysis using bottom-up models

Abstract For future low-carbon energy systems with high shares of renewable energy, temporal representation becomes the dominant factor that impacts the model outputs and analysis conclusions; therefore, relevant and complex modelling approaches are required. We present and apply specific methodology for modelling wind power plants in long-term planning models. It is based on wind power probability curves for each time slice and use of the semi-dynamic method for temporal aspect. Benefits of this approach include the representation of wind power extremes, correct address of balancing capacities and costs, partially retained chronology. We also evaluated the quantitative effect of this methodology on the results of the energy model. In determining the reasonable number of approximation steps for wind power probability curves, we found that a three-step approximation is sufficient to ensure the accuracy of model results.