Local Labor Demand and Program Participation Dynamics: Evidence from New York SNAP Administrative Records

This study uses SNAP administrative records from New York State, 2007‐2012, linked to county-level labor market indicators to estimate the effect of local labor demand on individuals’ likelihood of transitioning out of the program. We disaggregate county-level monthly demand factors by industry to isolate local demand conditions in the industries most likely to be relevant for SNAP participants, and we then estimate the effects of these labor demand conditions on the probability of exiting SNAP. We find that local labor markets matter for the length of time individuals spend on SNAP. Growth in local food service and retail employment significantly increases the likelihood of a recipient leaving the program in a given month. Wage growth in the same industries has similar, but more modest, estimated effects. Our models include county fixed effects and time-trends, and our results are identified by detrended within-county variation in local labor market conditions. We confirm that our results are not driven by endogenous inter-county mobility or New York City labor markets.