Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Global Nutrient Availability

Climate change is affecting the agricultural sector through multiple pathways, influencing productivity as well as nutrient content of food crops. In this study, we explore the combined implications of both effects on global nutrient availability. Adjustments to productivity differ across crop-region combinations, altering the relative profitability of the production of different commodities across regions and resulting in shifts in which commodities are produced where. The changes in regional and global production and market prices lead consumers to alter their food consumption patterns. Changes in nutrient content due to elevated carbon dioxide levels are accounted for through post-processing adjustments to the consumption baskets consumed under each scenario. We focus on iron, zinc, and protein due to the substantial global impacts of deficiencies in those nutrients. While per capita availability of these nutrients is projected to increase through mid-century under all scenarios, we find that climate change is likely to slow global progress towards nutrition targets identified in the sustainable development goals.