Predictive Thermal Inactivation Model for Effects of Temperature, Sodium Lactate, NaCl, and Sodium Pyrophosphate on Salmonella Serotypes in Ground Beef

Analyses of survival data of a mixture of Salmonella spp. at fixed temperatures between 55°C (131°F) and 71.1°C (160°F) in ground beef matrices containing concentrations of salt between 0 and 4.5%, concentrations of sodium pyrophosphate (SPP) between 0 and 0.5%, and concentrations of sodium lactate (NaL) between 0 and 4.5% indicated that heat resistance of Salmonella increases with increasing levels of SPP and salt, except that, for salt, for larger lethalities close to 6.5, the effect of salt was evident only at low temperatures (<64°C). NaL did not seem to affect the heat resistance of Salmonella as much as the effects induced by the other variables studied. An omnibus model for predicting the lethality for given times and temperatures for ground beef matrices within the range studied was developed that reflects the convex survival curves that were observed. However, the standard errors of the predicted lethalities from this models are large, so consequently, a model, specific for predicting the times needed to obtained a lethality of 6.5 log10, was developed, using estimated results of times derived from the individual survival curves. For the latter model, the coefficient of variation (CV) of predicted times range from about 6 to 25%. For example, at 60°C, when increasing the concentration of salt from 0 to 4.5%, and assuming that the concentration of SPP is 0%, the time to reach a 6.5-log10 relative reduction is predicted to increase from 20 min (CV = 11%) to 48 min (CV = 15%), a 2.4 factor (CV = 19%). At 71.1°C (160°F) the model predicts that more than 0.5 min is needed to achieve a 6.5-log10 relative reduction.