Evaluation of GHG Mitigation Targets by Country in 2030 and 2050 through Top-down Burden Sharing

Future mitigation targets should consider whether a country’s short-term is appropriate and sufficient to achieve the long-term goals. In this study a major top-down approach, burden sharing, was used to derive a mitigation path allowing achievement of long-term goals by country. Various weighting scenarios, including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), were constructed to comprehensively consider the various principles used for burden sharing, and consistent results were identified. Using our indicators, we compared the level of additional effort required for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-term low greenhouse gas Emission Development Strategies (LEDS) by country, and suggested implications for setting future mitigation targets in major countries, especially South Korea.