Experimental investigations on the predictable temporal-spatial zone for the deterministic sea wave prediction of long-crested waves

Deterministic sea wave prediction (DSWP) provides an effective way of predicting time history for a fixed point or spatial wave elevation on a fixed snapshot. DSWP models are realized by assimilating various phase-resolved wave models and measured wave data. For a given prediction accuracy level, the predictable zone is affected by the distance between the measurement and forecasting locations, the measured wave data length, and the sea condition. In this present research, we investigated the spatial–temporal predictable zone of long-crested waves based on the linear wave theory for the purpose of DSWP model optimization. We give the fundamental reason for the unpredictable zone in DSWP and then derive the theoretical representation for the predictable temporal-spatial zone. It can be seen that the theoretical results are highly consistent with the experimental results. The results of the predictable temporal-spatial zone provide a direct and effective way for the optimization of DSWP models.