Probabilistic Engine Performance Scatter and Deterioration Modeling

The change of performance parameters over time due to engine deterioration and production scatter plays an important role to ensure safe and economical engine operation. A tool has been developed which is able to model production scatter and engine deterioration on the basis of elementary changes of numerous construction features. In order to consider the characteristics of an engine fleet as well as random environmental influences, a probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) was chosen. To quantify the impact of feature deviations on performance relevant metrics, non-linear sensitivity functions are used to obtain scalars and offsets on turbomachinery maps which reflect module behavior during operation. Probability density functions (PDFs) of user-defined performance parameters of an engine fleet are then calculated by performing an MCS in a performance synthesis program. For the validation of the developed methodology pass-off test data, endurance engine test data, as well as data from engine maintenance incoming tests have been used. For this purpose, measured engine fleet performance data have been corrected by statistically eliminating the influence of measuring errors. The validation process showed the model’s ability to predict more than 90% of the measured performance variance. Furthermore, predicted performance trends correspond well to performance data from engines in operation. Two model enhancements are presented, the first of which is intended for maintenance cost prediction. It is able to generate PDFs of failure times for different features. The second enhancement correlates feature change and operating conditions and thus connects airline operation and maintenance costs. Subsequently, it is shown that the model developed is a powerful tool to assist in aircraft engine design and production processes thanks to its ability to identify and quantitatively assess main drivers for performance variance and trends.Copyright © 2007 by ASME