The role of polycrystalline thin-film PV technologies for achieving midterm market-competitive PV modules

This paper reviews the current commercial status of CulnSe/sub 2/ alloys (collectively, CIS) and CdTe-based photovoltaic (PV) modules, comparing the performance of commercial products with the results achieved for solar cell and prototype module champions. We provide an update for these PV cell and module technologies, and also compare CIS and CdTe performance levels to the results achieved by the crystalline Si PV industry. This comparison shows that CIS and CdTe module technology presently offers the best (and perhaps only) approach for significantly exceeding the cost/performance levels established by crystalline Si PV technologies. A semi-empirical methodology is used for comparing "champion" solar cell and prototype module data with performance achieved on manufacturing lines. Using a conservative assumption that thin-film technologies will eliminate the 40% of PV module costs arising from the Si wafer or ribbon, we estimate the future performance of all established PV module candidates, and conclude that, based on 2004 knowledge about each PV technology, CIS and CdTe should provide cost-competitive advantages over crystalline Si.