Verification of Predictions of Magnitude of Completeness Using Observations from an Earthquake Catalogue

Summary We address the problem of designing a seismic network for monitoring induced seismic events that must meet specific performance criteria. We propose a method to assess a fundamental measure of performance without an earthquake catalogue: magnitude of completeness. The method is based on the site noise, instrument noise, and station distribution and can be used to model existing or hypothetical networks. We use the method to predict the performance of a seismic network installed in the vicinity of the New Madrid seismic zone. Using the catalogue of over 2000 events, we estimate the spatially varying magnitude of completeness for the earthquake catalogue using maximum curvature method. The observed magnitude of completeness is compared to the predicted value. A bootstrap sampling method is used to obtain a measure of uncertainty in the magnitude of completeness estimate. We find that predicted magnitude of completeness agrees reasonably well with the observed magnitude of completeness, though the observed magnitude of completeness tends to be slightly lower than the predicted result.