AN ANALYSIS OF THE SEEDS HIGH-CONTRAST EXOPLANET SURVEY: MASSIVE PLANETS OR LOW-MASS BROWN DWARFS?

We conduct a statistical analysis of a combined sample of direct imaging data, totalling nearly 250 stars observed by HiCIAO on the Subaru Telescope, NIRI on Gemini North, and NICI on Gemini South. The stars cover a wide range of ages and spectral types, and include five detections (� And b, two ∼60 MJ brown dwarf companions in the Pleiades, PZ Tel B, and CD−35 2722 B). We conduct a uniform, Bayesian analysis of the ages of our entire sample, using both membership in a kinematic moving group and activity/rotation age indicators, to obtain posterior age distributions. We then present a new statistical method for computing the likelihood of a substellar distribution function. By performing most integrals analytically, we achieve an enormous speedup over brute-force Monte Carlo. We use this method to place upper limits on the maximum semimajor axis beyond which the distribution function for radial-velocity planets cannot extend, finding model-dependent values of ∼30–100 AU. Finally, we treat our entire substellar sample together, modeling it as a single power law distribution. After including GJ 758 B and GJ 504 b, two other HiCIAO detections, a distribution p(M,a) ∝ M −0.7±0.6 a −0.8±0.4 (1� errors) from massive brown dwarfs to a theoretically motivated cutoff at ∼5 MJ, provides an adequate fit to our data. This suggests that many of the directly imaged exoplanets known, including most (if not all) of the low-mass companions in our sample, formed by fragmentation in a cloud or disk, and represent the low-mass tail of the brown dwarfs. Subject headings: