Прогноз температурных изменений на Алтае в ближайшие 50 лет по реконструированным данным ледникового керна с горы Белуха

Paleotemperature time series reconstructed from δ¹⁸O changes in Belukha ice core were expanded into several heteroperiodic sinusoidal functions with the help of the spectral Fourier analysis. The main harmonics selected from obtained periodogram have allowed to perform (without taking into account the contribution of changes in the existing anthropogenic load) scenario forecasts of average annual (from March to November) temperature changes in the Altai region in the nearest future (until 2050). Forecast shows that a cold phase came to Altai since 2008 reaches its maximum by 2020. Then after the 15-year period of temperature increase a cold phase will come back after 2035. Our forecast agrees very well with the forecast made from the natural climatic variability (for example, the change of global temperature for the last 150 years).