The Hindsight Bias Effect and Counterfactual Thinking: Clinical Predictors

IntroductionCounterfactual thinking is the result of the comparison between the real circumstances of an event and the mental alternatives that were likely to alter the outcome of the event (Roese, 1997). Counterfactual thoughts are mental representations of the alternatives generated retrospectively, which amplify emotional responses to negative events (Atkinson, Bell, Feeney, 2009). These thoughts are conditional sentences, specifying both the preceding element and the consequence of an action (i.e. "If I hadn't driven so fast, I could have avoided the accident"). Depending on the comparing direction of the alternatives, counterfactual thoughts can be upward or downward. Upward counterfactuals constitute the comparison between the real outcome and a better hypothetical alternative, while the downward counterfactuals indicate hypothetical alternatives which are worse than the real result.This comparison is made in relation to a certain standard, through which an alternative is perceived as being better (i.e. upward counterfactual thoughts) or worse than the factual circumstances (i.e. downward counterfactual thoughts). One relevant example is that of the Olympic Sports in which the three top positions are awarded (Medvedec, Madey & Gilovich, 1995). Thus, the winners of the second place generate predominantly upward counterfactual thoughts (i.e. I could have won the first place), while the winners of the third place generate downward counterfactual thoughts (i.e. at least I came third).According to Roese (1994), several of the affective consequences of counterfactual thinking are attributed to the mechanisms of causal inferences. For example, the counterfactual thoughts of a student who could have done better in an exam if he had studied, leads to conclusions on the causal importance of studying. This mechanism underlies the positive effect of counterfactual thinking and can intensify the hindsight bias effect (Fischhoff, 1975).The hindsight bias effect is defined as the people's tendency to exaggerate post-factum the predictability of already produced events, which, retrospectively considered, seem more likely than prior to their occurrence (Pohl, 2007). Also known as "I knew it all along" (Fischhoff, 1975), it consists of a shiftin perception regarding the inevitability of an event after the final outcome is known (Christensen-Szalanski, Willham, 1991).Roese and Olson (1996) identified a causal connection between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias. Namely, counterfactual thoughts intensify the hindsight bias effect.On the other hand, Fichhoff(1975) states that counterfactual thoughts could reduce the hindsight bias effect. This negative relation could emerge when the hindsight bias effect is conceptualised as causal reasoning which is not conditioned by global inevitability, in which causal inferences are diminished.Counterfactual thinking and anxious depressive disordersDepression is often associated with ruminations (Roese and Olson, 1995); however, Roese et al. (2009) discovered that counterfactual thoughts constitute a better predictor of depression and anxiety compared to ruminations. Markman and Miller (2006) state that in case of severe depression, counterfactual thoughts do not implicitly determine ulterior functional behaviours. However, Quelhas , Power, Juhos and Senos (2008) conducted a study in which depressive and nondepressive subjects generated upward counterfactual thoughts, although their frequency was considerably higher in non-depressive subjects.Kocovski, Endler, Rector and Flett (2005) demonstrated that the people suffering from social phobia manifest coping mechanisms based on ruminations, following the exposure to imaginary social situations, while generating more counterfactual thoughts compared to non-anxious people. This finding was confirmed in the study conducted by Callender, Brown, Tata and Regan, (2007), in which anxiety was positively correlated with fluency, frequency and the length of upward counterfactual thoughts. …