Phase transitions and social distancing control measures for SARS-CoV-2 on small world networks.

We investigate the efficacy of three social distancing controls on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using an agent based SIR model on a small world network structure: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Use of personal protective equipment (PPE) to reduce viral shedding and resultant infectivity. The primary driver of total number of infections is the viral shedding rate, with probability of social distancing being the next critical factor. These results suggest that higher compliance with PPE usage and personal hygiene has the potential to decrease the number of infections and shorten epidemic duration. Individually initiated social isolation was effective when initiated in response to a single infected contact. The combination of social isolation and PPE resulted in very low levels of infection. Our model suggests that widespread application of social distancing through government control can drastically reduce viral spread; even in the absence of widely adopted social distancing protocols, high use of PPE can also dramatically reduce the viral spread while short-duration quarantine following exposure to an infected individual was less effective.