Integrated programs for mitigating traffic problems in Egypt: an in depth analysis of experts judgment

This paper presents an innovative structured procedure for developing integrated traffic relieve programs with immediate important practical implications. This is based on expert judgment. The paper starts by developing a comprehensive inventory and categorization of policies and measures that are aimed at relieving traffic problems in metropolitan cities. Generic criteria that can be used as basis for the judgmental assessment of such policies and measures are identified and selected. An attitudinal questionnaire was designed to elicit the judgment of transport, traffic and highway academics (experts) regarding potentiality (efficiency and effectiveness), public acceptability, applicability, perceived cost and priority of implementation of these policies and measures. Appropriate nonparametric statistical tests and techniques were selected and applied to conduct an in depth statistical analysis of the gathered expert information. The main purpose of such analysis is to obtain judgment patterns of experts and degree of consensus among them. The statistical analysis was complemented by a weighting procedure to establish the potential achievement rate of each policy and measure and hence in decisions on whether to use and implement these in relieving traffic problems. As a result of the analysis, complementary traffic relieve programs are developed. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations for mitigating traffic problems in mega cities of the developing world such as Cairo.