Influence of regional climate change on meteorological characteristics and their subsequent effect on ozone dispersion in Taiwan

Abstract The objective of this study is to understand the influence of regional climate change on local meteorological conditions and their subsequent effect on local ozone (O 3 ) dispersion in Taiwan. The 33-year NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 (NNR2) data set (1979–2011) was analyzed to understand the variations in regional-scale atmospheric conditions in East Asia and the western North Pacific. To save computational processing time, two scenarios representative of past (1979–86) and current (2004–11) atmospheric conditions were selected but only targeting the autumn season (September, October and November) when the O 3 concentrations were at high levels. Numerical simulations were performed using weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for the past and current scenarios individually but only for the month of October because of limited computational resources. Analysis of NNR2 data exhibited increased air temperature, weakened Asian continental anticyclone, enhanced northeasterly monsoonal flow, and a deepened low-pressure system forming near Taiwan. With enhanced evaporation from oceans along with a deepened low-pressure system, precipitation amounts increased in Taiwan in the current scenario. As demonstrated in the WRF simulation, the land surface physical process responded to the enhanced precipitation resulting in damper soil conditions, and reduced ground temperatures that in turn restricted the development of boundary layer height. The weakened land–sea breeze flow was simulated in the current scenario. With reduced dispersion capability, air pollutants would tend to accumulate near the emission source leading to a degradation of air quality in this region. The conditions would be even worse in southwestern Taiwan due to the fact that stagnant wind fields would occur more frequently in the current scenario. On the other hand, in northern Taiwan, the simulated O 3 concentrations are lower during the day in the current scenario due to the enhanced cloud conditions and reduced solar radiation.