Modelling and mapping of plant phenological stages as bio-meteorological indicators for climate change

Background In Hesse, a federal state in central Germany, the average air temperature of the period 1991 to 2009 was by 0.9°C higher compared to that of 1961 to 1990. A further rise in air temperature of up to 3.7°C compared to the reference period 1971 to 2000 is expected until the end of the twenty-first century. This may affect the beginning and length of phenological stages of plants. Hence, this project should analyse and model spatiotemporal trends of plant phenology as being an indicator for climate change-related biological effects. Meteorological data together with data on 35 phenological phases of plants indicating different phenological seasons and observed at 6,500 sites in Germany (553 in Hesse) between 1961 and 2009 were analysed in a GIS. Estimations on phenological developments in the future periods 2031 to 2060 and 2071 to 2100 were based on data from four regional climate models.