An Approach to the short- and long-term forecasting of strong earthquakes: A case study of the M w = 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, Japan, March 11, 2011

Seismic hazard forecasts submitted in real-time mode to the Kamchatkan Branch of the Russian Expert Council (KB REC) on Earthquake Prediction, Seismic Hazard, and Risk Assessment are described. In the first long-term forecasts (September 7 and November 9, 2009), based on the GLOBAS_place technique (GLOBal Activation of Seismicity), we forecasted the occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 6.6 in the region of 35° N–40° N (Japan) and in three other regions of the world. In the forecasts submitted on February 25, and March 2 and 3, 2011, we indicated the possibility of more than one earthquake with M w ≥ 8 occurring starting from noon, March 3. Forecasts were based on the GLOBAS techniques and recording of remote precursors using instrumental methods. Precursors were recorded before the Tohoku earthquake with a preceding time of up to 28 days based on the dynamics of molecular hydrogen (Kamchatka) and less than 8 days based on the bulk deformations in the area of town of Aleksandrov (Moscow Syneclise, East European Craton). A complex analysis of the data, performed within the framework of the techniques used, confirms the possibility of forecasting the time of occurrence, magnitude, and place of strong earthquakes with M ≥ 8.