A generalisable bottom-up methodology for deriving a residential stock model from large empirical databases

Abstract Average reference dwellings representing a predominant housing typology are defined in this work. Specifying such reference buildings is a prerequisite for (i) calculating cost-optimal energy performance requirements for buildings and building elements and (ii) ensuring valid calculations of national building energy consumption. In the EU, an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating is an assessment of the energy consumption of a dwelling. The use of inappropriate default-values for the building envelope thermal transmittance coefficients (U-values) and standardised thermal bridging transmittance coefficients (Y-values) in the production of EPCs leads to an over-estimation of potential energy savings from interventions in the existing dwelling stock. A methodology is presented for the derivation of simplified default-free inputs to a bottom-up residential cost-optimality energy consumption model from an EPC dataset. 35 reference dwellings (RDs) are employed to appropriately characterise 406,918 dwellings. Use of these RDs enable quantification of (i) the energy saving potential of a predominant housing typology, (ii) the effect of default U-value and standardised Y-value use on the prebound effect in dwellings (iii) overall national building energy consumption.