A Simulation Model of Urban Public Transport Services Resiliency in Flood Disaster

Floods disaster in urban area can have an impact on the movement of people, goods and animals. Flood disaster with large and high inundation, will certainly result in the disruption of public transportation activities, because the road infrastructure and utilities are probably can not be passed by people and vehicles. This article attempts to demonstrate a simulated model of urban public transport service that may still be provided to passengers in a service area corridor during flood disaster. The objective of the research is to contribute to the analytical basis related to urban public transport services resilience during the flood disaster. Some relevant publication are reviewed to establish the model simulation. The simulation model is based on the assumption that the primary objective of an urban public transport service during a flood disaster is to continue serving passengers on a predefined service corridor.  An example of the application and analysis of the simulation model, conducted on three flood conditions that occurred in the city of Padang, i.e. the first is a high flood prediction that may occur (based on The Padang City Development Planning Document) and two floods that have occurred in year 2016 and 2017.  In the simulation of two conditions of high flood prediction and flood disaster in 2017, all routes (two main routes and forty-two branch routes) are affected, and there is an addition of route length due to deviation of service route, additional travel time, and terminal must moved from the existing location. Only in the simulation of the flood events of 2016, 50% of the main routes are not affected, and 16 branch routes, which are not deviated. This simulation shows that urban public transport service in Padang city is relatively vulnerable to flood disaster. Lesson learned here have implication for urban public transport services. An interesting outcome of this paper is the ability of the simulation model to be applied to obtain route deviation of urban public transport service route and still serve the demand of passengers along the service area corridor during the flood disaster. Flood inundation area, flood height and road surface height, public transport route pattern, road network grid pattern and distance, ground floor level of operated buses, are parameters affecting urban public transportation service resistance in flood disaster.