Historical review of Play Fairway analysis using modern Play Based Exploration techniques in the Central North Sea, UKCS.

The aim of this project, undertaken in 2015, was to review the accuracy of a petroleum prospectivity study in the UKCS CNS conducted by Lasmo in 1993 by comparing its predicted results to discoveries made since, and to re-predict the results of the original study using modern Play Based Exploration software and best practices. Four plays were analyzed for prospectivity during the project; the Triassic (TRI), Middle Jurassic (J2), Upper Jurassic Shallow (J3s) and Upper Jurassic Deep (J3d). The results show that between 1993 and 2015 an additional 2,082 MMBOE was discovered in the study area for the plays in question. The results validate the YTF concept as all the estimated YTF values based on the 1993 dataset (in the range 2,048-2,476 MMBOE) are “in the right ballpark”. However, if the YTF estimate for the Modern study is accurate, it is likely that all the modelled YTF values have underestimated the remaining hydrocarbon potential. In addition, the results show that the use of modern technologies and best practices produced a more accurate result.