Top-down sustainability transitions in action: How do incumbent actors drive electric mobility diffusion in China, Japan, and California?

Abstract In explaining how socio-technical transitions occur, prevailing theories focus on bottom-up processes driven by new entrants, diverse actors and open-ended exploration in small, protected niches. Incumbent firms are frequently portrayed as hampering change, while managerial strategies using traditional public policy instruments remain understudied. Addressing this bias, we examine strategies used by networks of incumbent state and industry actors in China, Japan and California to accelerate the production and diffusion of battery-electric or hydrogen-powered vehicles. We build a comprehensive framework that systematically marries mechanisms of industrial transformation described in developmental-state literature with theories of socio-technical change from transitions scholarship. We then use a vast dataset of secondary documents and interviews to examine the principal strategies employed in each country, identifying variations over two phases of technological diffusion. Findings reveal that the incumbent actor networks in each country have collectively employed multiple but similar strategies. Yet closer inspection of specific policy instruments, such as regulations and performance-based incentives, along with ambitions to phase out vehicles with internal combustion engines, reveals differences across cases. We explain these by considering different motivations for each country’s transition and influencing socio-political conditions. Our study contributes to the enrichment of future transitions research in at least two ways. Theoretically, by integrating literature on transitions and developmental states, we deepen understanding of how incumbent state and market actors can attempt to drive socio-technical change. Empirically, our analysis provides important evidence for understanding the strategies driving top-down transitions outside northern Europe, and the conditions affecting instrument choice.