Predicting Aircraft Approach Speeds for Enhancing Airport Capacity

Today, standards for aircraft arrival separation over the runway threshold must be satisfied regardless of the approach speeds of aircraft as they cross the landing threshold. Aircraft landing speeds vary widely. If expected aircraft speeds could be predicted to some accuracy, more efficient procedures and standards could perhaps be developed. This paper describes examples of airport capacity enhancement concepts that utilize the ability to predict expected aircraft landing speeds. It describes factors that affect aircraft landing speeds such as aircraft weight, design, environmental factors, airline guidance, and individual pilot judgment. It presents an analysis of Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA) data gathered from an airline as related to the ability to predict aircraft approach speeds, to illustrate the possibility of applying this knowledge to concepts of increasing airport capacity. Finally it provides an outline of the main components of the operational implications of using such a method of predicting and utilizing landing speeds.