Evaluation of candidate models for the 13th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field

In December 2019, the 13th revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) was released by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) Division V Working Group V-MOD. This revision comprises two new spherical harmonic main field models for epochs 2015.0 (DGRF-2015) and 2020.0 (IGRF-2020) and a model of the predicted secular variation for the interval 2020.0 to 2025.0 (SV-2020-2025). The models were produced from candidates submitted by fifteen international teams. These teams were led by the British Geological Survey (UK), China Earthquake Administration. The candidate models were evaluated individually and compared to all other candidates as well to the mean, median and a robust Huber-weighted model of all candidates. These analyses were used to identify, for example, the variation between the Gauss coefficients or the geographical regions where the candidate models strongly differed. The majority of candidates were sufficiently close that the differences can be explained primarily by individual modeling methodologies and data selection strategies. None of the candidates were so different to warrant their exclusion from the final IGRF-13. The IAGA V-MOD task force thus voted for two approaches: the median of the Gauss coefficients of the candidates for the DGRF-2015 and IGRF-2020 models and the robust Huber-weighted model for the predictive SV-2020-2025. In this paper, we document the evaluation of the candidate models and provide details of the approach used to derive the final IGRF-13 products.