A Probabilistic Regional Damage Estimation Model for Earthquake Occurrences

In this paper we present a model for estimating regional earthquake damage. The model utilizes the relational data base management system ORACLE and the geographic information system ARC/INFO for manipulating the large data bases of building inventory and for regional mapping of expected damage distributions, respectively. In the course of the implementation of the model, several expert systems were developed. These include knowledge base expert systems for building classification and for consolidation of information on building inventories. An automated address matching scheme is also developed to correlate buildings to site locations. Annual probability of dollar loss and expected regional damage distributions are obtained for Palo Alto, California as demonstration of the model.