Investigation of the snow-monsoon relationship in a warming atmosphere using Hadley Centre climate model

Abstract Several studies based on observed data and models show that there is an inverse relationship between the strength of the Indian summer monsoon and the extent/depth of Eurasian snow in the preceding season. Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) simulations of Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) have been used in this study to re-examine the snow-monsoon relationship in the longer time scale. The PPE monthly precipitation values during June, July, August and September (JJAS) have been compared with the corresponding values of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (UEA), UK for the period 1961–1990. The PPEs which simulated the Indian summer monsoon reasonably well have been used for examining snow-monsoon relationship. Atmospheric fields such as wind, geopotential height, velocity potential and stream function from the PPE simulations have been examined in detail. Results show that because of the west Eurasian snow depth anomalies, the mid-latitude circulation undergoes significant changes, which in turn lead to weak/strong monsoon circulation during deficient/excess Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) respectively. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF1) of winter snow depth for the period 1961–1990 over the whole of Eurasia explains 13% variability. Thus the significant correlation patterns are consistent with the most dominant EOF of snow depth, in which the first mode describes a dipole type structure as observed. The study confirms that snow depth in the western part of Eurasia (20°E–65°E and 45°N–65°N) has negative correlation with the ISMR.