An accurate and efficient satellite long-term orbit predictor employing 'fictitious' mean orbital elements

By using Von Zeipel's generating function procedure the perturbing earth gravitational potential is averaged with respect to the fast variable (mean anomaly) and a set of 'fictitous' mean orbital elements which can be used as a long-term satellite orbit predictor is obtained. The set of elements is shown to be a function of the nonlinear square of the second zonal harmonic coefficient. It is found that the long-term orbit prediction using the 'fictitous' mean elements is as accurate as that using the osculating elements, but has a computing speed about two orders of magnitude faster. For short-term orbit predictions, the osculating elements approach must be used.