Abstract Background Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy. Methods We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0–0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/ γ decrease (reduction was set as 1–3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients ( f c ) [reduction ( z ) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15–44; 45–64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate ( f ). Results Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/ γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01–0.85%). When 1/ γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71–0.12%). Conclusions Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.
To assess the relationship between breast cancer subtypes and patient-reported outcomes (PRO) following palliative radiotherapy for bone metastases.Prospectively collected PRO for all breast cancer patients treated with palliative, bone metastasis-directed radiotherapy from 2013 to 2016 in the province of British Columbia were analysed. The PRO questionnaire scored pain severity, level of function and symptom frustration at baseline and at 3-4 weeks following palliative radiotherapy using a 12-point scale. The primary outcome was the rate of overall response (any improvement in score); the secondary outcome was the rate of complete improvement in PRO (final PRO score of 0). Multivariate logistic analysis was used to compare response rates between molecular subgroup approximations of luminal A (LumA), luminal B (LumB), HER2-enriched (HER2) and triple negative (TN), as defined by grade and immunohistochemical staining.There were 376 patients who underwent 464 courses of palliative radiation for bone metastases. Subtypes included: 243 LumA, 146 LumB, 46 HER2 and 29 TN. There were 216 multifraction radiotherapy courses (median dose 20 Gy) and 248 single-fraction radiotherapy courses (median dose 8 Gy). The overall response rate was 85% and the complete response rate was 25%. In comparison with LumA breast cancers, TN breast cancers were associated with a lower rate of overall response (69% versus 86%, P = 0.021) and a lower rate of complete response (10% versus 28.8%, P = 0.045) on multivariate analyses.Patients with TN breast cancer have lower rates of pain, function and symptom frustration improvement following palliative radiation for bone metastases.
Abstract BACKGROUND: Detecting avian influenza virus has become an important public health strategy for controlling the emerging infectious disease. METHODS: The HIS (hospital information system) modified influenza surveillance system (ISS) and a newly built pneumonia surveillance system (PSS) were used to monitor the influenza viruses in Changsha City, China. The ISS was used to monitor outpatients in two sentinel hospitals and to detect mild influenza and avian influenza cases, and PSS was used to monitor inpatients in 49 hospitals and to detect severe and death influenza cases. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2016, there were 3,551,917 outpatients monitored by the ISS system, among whom 126,076 were influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, with the ILI proportion (ILI%) of 3.55%. After the HIS was used, the reported incident cases of ILI and ILI% were increased significantly. From March, 2009 to September, 2016, there were 5,491,560 inpatient cases monitored by the PSS system, among which 362,743 were pneumonia cases, with a proportion of 6.61%. Among pneumonia cases, about 10.55% (38,260/362,743) of cases were severe or death cases. The pneumonia incidence increased each year in the city. Among 15 avian influenza cases reported from January, 2005 to September, 2016, there were 26.7% (4/15) mild cases detected by the HIS-modified ISS system, while 60.0% (9/15) were severe or death cases detected by the PSS system. Two H5N1 severe cases were missed by the ISS system in January, 2009 when the PSS system was not available. CONCLUSIONS: The HIS was able to improve the efficiency of the ISS for monitoring ILI and emerging avian influenza virus. However, the efficiency of the system needs to be verified in a wider area for a longer time span in China.
Abstract Background Shigellosis is one of the main diarrhea diseases in developing countries. However, the transmissibility of shigellosis remains unclear. Methods We used the dataset of shigellosis cases reported between January 2005 and December 2017, from Hubei Province, China. A mathematical model was developed based on the natural history and the transmission mechanism of the disease. By fitting the data using the model, transmission relative rate from person to person ( b ) and from reservoir to person ( b w ), and the effective reproduction number ( R eff ) were estimated. To simulate the contribution of b and b w during the transmission, we performed a “knock-out” simulation in four scenarios: A) b = 0 and b w = 0; B) b = 0; C) b w = 0; D) control (no intervention). Results A total of 130,770 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei province, among which 13 cases were dead. The median annual incidence was 19.96 per 100,000 persons (range: 5.99 per 100,000 persons – 29.47 per 100,000 persons) with a decreased trend (trend χ 2 = 25,470.27, P < 0.001). The mean values of b and b w were 0.0898 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.0851–0.0946) and 1.1264 × 10 − 9 (95% CI: 4.1123 × 10 − 10 –1.8416 × 10 − 9 ), respectively. The “knock-out” simulation showed that the number of cases simulated by scenario A was almost the same as scenario B, and scenario C was almost the same as scenario D. The mean value of R eff of shigellosis was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.13–1.25) and decreased slightly with a Linear model until it decreased to an epidemic threshold of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.65–1.34) in 2029. Conclusions The incidence of shigellosis is still in high level. The transmissibility of the disease is low in Hubei Province. The transmission would be interrupted in the year of 2029.
Objective: To investigate the impact of enoyl-CoA hydratase short chain 1(ECHS1) on apoptosis of HepG2 cells.Methods: The ECHS1 interference plasmids were constructed and transfected into HepG2 cells.The stable interference cell lines were screened via puromycin.Interference efficacy was detected by Western blot.Flow cytometry and TUNEL assays studied the apoptosis of HepG2 cells.Apoptosis-related proteins were detected by Western blot.Results: The HepG2 cells with stable ECHS1 gene interference were successfully established.The expression level of ECHS1 protein in HepG2 cells after transfection with ECHS1 siRNA was significantly lower than that in the blank control cells(HepG2 cells without transfection) and the negative control cells(HepG2 cells transfected with pU6 vector)(P 0.05).Apoptosis ratio of the ECHS1 siRNA group was significant higher than that of negative control group by both Flow cytometry and TUNEL assays(P0.05).Expressions of p53,Bax and Bid in ECHS1 siRNA group were higher than those in negative control group.Conclusion: ECHS1 may antagonise the apoptosis of HepG2 cells via the mitochondrial pathway.
Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China.
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