Abstract The composition of the directly elected European Parliament does not precisely reflect the ‘real’ balance of political forces in the European Community. As long as the national political systems decide most of what there is to be decided politically, and everything really important, European elections are additional national second‐order elections. They are determined more by the domestic political cleavages than by alternatives originating in the EC, but in a different way than if nine first‐order national elections took place simultaneously. This is the case because European elections occur at different stages of the national political systems’ respective ‘electoral cycles’. Such a relationship between a second‐order arena and the chief arena of a political system is not at all unusual. What is new here, is that one second‐order political arena is related to nine different first‐order arenas. A first analysis of European election results satisfactorily justifies the assumption mat European Parliament direct elections should be treated as nine simultaneous national second‐order elections.
What are the effects on public support for the European Union (EU) when a member state exits? We examine this question in the context of Britain's momentous decision to leave the EU. Combining analyses of the European Election Study 2019 and a unique survey-embedded experiment conducted in all member states, we analyse the effect of Brexit on support for membership among citizens in the EU-27. The experimental evidence shows that while information about the negative economic consequences of Brexit had no significant effect, positive information about Britain's sovereignty significantly increased optimism about leaving the EU. Our findings suggest that Brexit acts as a benchmark for citizens’ evaluations of EU membership across EU-27, and that it may not continue to act as a deterrent in the future.
Abstract Discusses the theory and concepts of partisanship. Using indicators of the strength of party identification—or party attachment—as its main analytical tool, it traces the development of partisanship in some 15 party systems in post‐war Western Europe, noting changes across time and between countries. While some countries show partisanships to be in steady and steep decline, in others the trend is cyclical, and in the newer democracies (such as Spain) it is even on the increase.
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