The Brexit deterrent? How member state exit shapes public support for the European Union
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What are the effects on public support for the European Union (EU) when a member state exits? We examine this question in the context of Britain's momentous decision to leave the EU. Combining analyses of the European Election Study 2019 and a unique survey-embedded experiment conducted in all member states, we analyse the effect of Brexit on support for membership among citizens in the EU-27. The experimental evidence shows that while information about the negative economic consequences of Brexit had no significant effect, positive information about Britain's sovereignty significantly increased optimism about leaving the EU. Our findings suggest that Brexit acts as a benchmark for citizens’ evaluations of EU membership across EU-27, and that it may not continue to act as a deterrent in the future.Keywords:
Brexit
Member state
Public support
Referendum
Britain’s decision to leave the EU did not go unnoticed by the remaining EU states. Previous studies have shown that the assessment of the Brexit decision shortly after the referendum took place influenced the voting behaviour of citizens in a hypothetical EU referendum held in their country. This research note goes one step further by examining whether citizens’ willingness to leave the EU changed during the following three years of prolonged Brexit negotiations. To this end, Eurobarometer and ESS data are used to descriptively trace public votes in hypothetical referendums on EU membership over time. In addition, a cross-sectional analysis of Eurobarometer data collected two years after the referendum finds that citizens’ assessment of the British Brexit experience is strongly associated with attitudes towards EU membership. If Brexit is seen as the right decision for Britain, withdrawal of one’s own country from the EU is seen as more attractive although reassuringly for the EU, most people in the EU do not hold this belief.
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Significance A rejection of the deal would increase momentum for a second referendum, especially if it becomes the only means of avoiding a no-deal Brexit. Impacts If it revoked Article 50, the United Kingdom would be able to re-enter the EU on the same terms they had prior to the referendum. Some businesses may delay or postpone plans for relocation. A second vote would result in parliamentary division over issues such as the date of the referendum and what questions should be asked.
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Relocation
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Reflects on the problems associated with Theresa May's statement that means Brexit. Discusses the extent to which Conservative support for Brexit was originally to prevent loss of votes to UKIP, and how the meaning of Brexit evolved and developed in the referendum and through subsequent events. Argues that calling a second referendum on Brexit remains the best available option.
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Prime minister
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This article focuses on the impact of the UK’s decision to leave the EU on cooperation within the Council of the EU. It does so by studying how cooperation between member states has changed from the period before the Brexit referendum to the period after. In the emerging literature on Brexit, it has been highlighted that member states that have been close partners to the UK will have to (and have started to) adjust their cooperation behaviour and form new alliances. While the structure of cooperation in the Council is often understood to be stable over time, suggesting that cooperation is mainly driven by structurally determined preferences that don’t easily change, a major event such as Brexit may force remaining member states to restructure their cooperation behaviour. Accordingly, it is expected and tested whether less structurally determined preferences have grown in importance for shaping patterns of cooperation in the immediate period following the Brexit referendum. Using survey data based on interviews with member state negotiators to the Council, asking about their network ties, compiled both in the period before and after Brexit referendum of 2016, it is shown that structurally determined preferences are important in both periods and that more volatile ideologically-based preferences on the EU integration dimension and GAL-TAN dimension have become important following the referendum. The article is informative both for those interested in the effects of Brexit on EU institutions, as well as those more generally interested in causes of cooperation patterns in the Council.
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Britain's vote to leave the EU has raised more questions than answers, which is ironic given that David Cameron's aim for the referendum was to settle the European question in British politics. The outcome, which reflected a range of causes, leaves significant uncertainties overhanging UK politics, UK-EU relations and wider European politics. It is likely that the confused outcome of the referendum and the technicalities of Brexit mean that for both the UK and the EU future relations will resemble fifty shades of grey rather than some black and white division of in or out.
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Religion has a significant effect on how Europeans feel about the European Union (EU) and has had an important impact on how people voted in the UK’s ‘Brexit referendum’. This book provides a clear and accessible quantitative study of how religion affects Euroscepticism and political behaviour.
It examines how religion has affected support for EU membership since the UK joined the European Economic Community, through to the announcement of the Brexit referendum in 2013, to the referendum itself in 2016. It also explores how religion continues to affect attitudes towards the EU post-Brexit. The volume provides valuable insights into why the UK voted to leave the EU. Furthermore, it highlights how religion affects the way that citizens throughout Europe assess the benefits, costs and values associated with EU membership, and how this may influence public opinion regarding European integration in the future.
This timely book will be of important interest to academics and students focusing on religion and public attitudes, contemporary European and British politics as well as think tanks, interest groups and those with an interest in understanding Brexit.
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Abstract On 23 June 2016, the UK 's ‘Brexit’ referendum saw a majority vote to leave the EU —a result that shocked the world. Using European Social Survey data, we argue that Brexit was not simply decided by less‐educated voters who did not understand the EU 's value. Pro‐Brexit votes were determined by economic interests as well as emotional, psychological, and attitudinal factors related to European integration. We demonstrate that skill level played a more important role in voter decision than education, gender, age, and political stance.
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European Social Survey
Value (mathematics)
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Brexit is a term used to explain about the departure or withdrawal of Great Britain from the European Union. Brexit is a very important political development of recent political scenario of Europe. It has its impacts on the economic and political future of both UK and EU. The UK is enjoying membership of the EU from the beginning. But in mid of 2016 a referendum was held in UK to decide whether they should remain in EU or exit. The British people decide in favor of exit with a simple majority of 51.9%. After that referendum British Prime Minister David Cameron resigned and new general elections were held in 2017. Since the referendum the UK and EU are negotiating on an exit deal and the UK is due to leave the union on 29th March 2019. It will have its dimensions and implications. There are voices rose demanding a new referendum on the issue because many British people think that the Brexit is not good for UK. There are pro EU voices in European countries who also wish UK to remain part of this community. In this descriptive study ‘impacts of Brexit on UK’ has been discussed and economic and political dimensions have been observed by the researchers.
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Prime minister
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Abstract The June 2016 Brexit referendum sent international shock waves, possibly causing adjustments in public opinion not only in the UK, but also abroad. We suggest that these adjustments went beyond substantive attitudes on European integration and included procedural preferences towards direct democracy. Drawing on the insight that support for direct democracy can be instrumentally motivated, we argue that the outcome of the Brexit referendum led (politically informed) individuals to update their support for referendums based on their views towards European integration. Using panel data from Germany, we find that those in favour of European integration, especially those with high political involvement, turned more sceptical of the introduction of referendums in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. Our study contributes to the understanding of preferences for direct democracy and documents a remarkable case of how – seemingly basic – procedural preferences can, in today's internationalized information environment, be shaped by high-profile events abroad.
Referendum
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Direct Democracy
Skepticism
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