Abstract Background For many years smoking has been the major threat to public health in developed countries. However, smoking prevalence has declined over a period when adiposity has increased. The aim of this study was to determine whether adiposity now accounts for more deaths than smoking in the general population as a whole or sub-groups of it. Methods This is a comparative risk assessment study using Health Surveys for England and Scottish Health Surveys from 2003 to 2017. Annual prevalence of overweight, obesity, current and former smoking were obtained and combined using population-based weights. Sex-specific risk ratios for all-cause mortality were obtained from the most recently published meta-analyses. Population attributable fractions across yeas were then estimated. Findings Overall, deaths attributable to current/former smoking declined from 23.1% (95% CI 20.6–25.8%) in 2003 to 19.4% (95% CI 17.3–21.6%) in 2017, whilst those attributable to adiposity (overweight or obesity) increased from 17.9% (95% CI 17.3–18.4%) in 2003 to 23.1% (95% CI 22.3–23.8%) in 2017 with cross-over occurring in 2013. Cross-over occurred earlier in men (2011) than women (2014). It occurred in 2006 for those aged over 65 years of age and in 2012 for those aged 45–64 years. Below 45 years, smoking remained the larger contributor to mortality. Interpretation Adiposity now accounts for more deaths in England and Scotland than smoking among people in middle- and old-age. National strategies to address adiposity should be a public health priority.
Abstract New-born heel prick blood spots are routinely used to screen for inborn errors of metabolism and life-limiting inherited disorders1. The Danish Newborn Screening Biobank (DNSB) has shown that nucleic acid, metabolic and protein assays are feasible on archived new-born dried blood spots2. Denmark is currently the only country in the world where nation-level linkage of such secondary data to health records is approved2. In the new era of health data science and predictive medicine, the potential value of secondary data from new-born blood spot archives merits wider ethical consideration and assessment of feasibility for public benefit. Early life exposures and behaviours set health trajectories in childhood and later life. The new-born blood spot is potentially well placed to create an unbiased and cost-effective population-level retrospective birth cohort study. Scotland has retained new-born blood spots, commonly known as Guthrie cards, for all children born since 1965, around 3 million in total. However, a moratorium on research access is currently in place, pending public consultation. We conducted a Citizens’ Jury, with Jurors delivering an agreed verdict that conditional research access to the Guthrie Cards was in the public interest. The Chief Medical Officer for Scotland authorised restricted lifting of the current research moratorium to allow a feasibility study. In support of a wider public consultation, Guthrie cards from consented Generation Scotland volunteers3,4 were retrieved and their potential for both epidemiological and biological research demonstrated.
Abstract Objectives To investigate mortality rates and associated factors, and avoidable mortality, in children/young people with intellectual disabilities. Design Retrospective cohort; individual record-linked data between Scotland’s 2011 Census to 9.5 years of National Records for Scotland death certification data. Setting General community. Participants Children and young people with intellectual disabilities living in Scotland aged 5-24 years, and an age matched comparison group. Main outcome measures Deaths up to 2020: age of death, age-standardised mortality ratios (age-SMRs); causes of death including cause-specific age-SMRs/sex-SMRs; and avoidable deaths. Results Death occurred in 260/ 7,247 (3.6%) children/young people with intellectual disabilities (crude mortality rate=388/100,000 person years), and 528/156,439 (0.3%) children/young people without intellectual disabilities (crude mortality rate=36/100,000 person years). SMR for children/young people with, versus those without, intellectual disabilities were 10.7 for all causes (95% confidence interval (CI)=9.47-12.1), 5.17 for avoidable death (CI=4.19-6.37), 2.3 for preventable death (1.6-3.2), and 16.1 for treatable death (CI=12.5-20.8). SMRs were highest for children (27.4, CI=20.6-36.3) aged 5-9 years, and lowest for young people (6.6, CI=5.1-8.6) aged 20-24 years. SMRs were higher in more affluent neighbourhoods. Crude mortality incidences were higher for the children/young people with intellectual disabilities for most ICD-10 chapters. The most common underlying avoidable causes of mortality for children/young people with intellectual disabilities were epilepsy, aspiration/reflux/choking and respiratory infection, and for children/young people without intellectual disabilities, were suicide, accidental drug-related deaths and car accidents. Conclusion Children with intellectual disabilities had significantly higher rates of all cause, avoidable, treatable, and preventable mortality than their peers. The largest differences were for treatable mortality, particularly at ages 5-9 years. Interventions to improve health-care to reduce treatable mortality should be a priority for children/young people with intellectual disabilities. Examples include improved epilepsy management and risk assessments, and co-ordinated multi-disciplinary actions to reduce aspiration/reflux/choking and respiratory infection. This is necessary across all neighbourhoods. Strengths and limitations of this study Novel use of Census records and record linkage to death records to study mortality in a total population cohort of children and young people with intellectual disabilities. Due to the use of a whole country population, these results are well-powered and generalisable. Despite comprising a whole country population, our study was not large enough to delineate cause-specific mortality ratios by sex. This study was limited by lack of demographic and clinical diagnostic information, including the severity or cause of intellectual disabilities. Reliance on death certificate data is limited by inconsistencies in reporting of cause of death.
It is now well recognised that the risk of severe COVID-19 increases with some long-term conditions (LTCs). However, prior research primarily focuses on individual LTCs and there is a lack of data on the influence of multimorbidity (≥2 LTCs) on the risk of COVID-19. Given the high prevalence of multimorbidity, more detailed understanding of the associations with multimorbidity and COVID-19 would improve risk stratification and help protect those most vulnerable to severe COVID-19. Here we examine the relationships between multimorbidity, polypharmacy (a proxy of multimorbidity), and COVID-19; and how these differ by sociodemographic, lifestyle, and physiological prognostic factors.We studied data from UK Biobank (428,199 participants; aged 37-73; recruited 2006-2010) on self-reported LTCs, medications, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and physiological measures which were linked to COVID-19 test data. Poisson regression models examined risk of COVID-19 by multimorbidity/polypharmacy and effect modification by COVID-19 prognostic factors (age/sex/ethnicity/socioeconomic status/smoking/physical activity/BMI/systolic blood pressure/renal function). 4,498 (1.05%) participants were tested; 1,324 (0.31%) tested positive for COVID-19. Compared with no LTCs, relative risk (RR) of COVID-19 in those with 1 LTC was no higher (RR 1.12 (CI 0.96-1.30)), whereas those with ≥2 LTCs had 48% higher risk; RR 1.48 (1.28-1.71). Compared with no cardiometabolic LTCs, having 1 and ≥2 cardiometabolic LTCs had a higher risk of COVID-19; RR 1.28 (1.12-1.46) and 1.77 (1.46-2.15), respectively. Polypharmacy was associated with a dose response higher risk of COVID-19. All prognostic factors were associated with a higher risk of COVID-19 infection in multimorbidity; being non-white, most socioeconomically deprived, BMI ≥40 kg/m2, and reduced renal function were associated with the highest risk of COVID-19 infection: RR 2.81 (2.09-3.78); 2.79 (2.00-3.90); 2.66 (1.88-3.76); 2.13 (1.46-3.12), respectively. No multiplicative interaction between multimorbidity and prognostic factors was identified. Important limitations include the low proportion of UK Biobank participants with COVID-19 test data (1.05%) and UK Biobank participants being more affluent, healthier and less ethnically diverse than the general population.Increasing multimorbidity, especially cardiometabolic multimorbidity, and polypharmacy are associated with a higher risk of developing COVID-19. Those with multimorbidity and additional factors, such as non-white ethnicity, are at heightened risk of COVID-19.
Claudicants usually die from concomitant conditions. Therefore, surgical interventions are aimed at improving quality of life, rather than survival. This study compared the impact of percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA), arterial reconstruction and conservative management on quality of life. SF36 questionnaires were completed by 201 newly referred claudicants prior to treatment andsix months later. Multiple regression was used to compare the quality of life scores following the three treatments after adjustment for baseline scores, age, sex, site of disease and disease severity. Follow-up data were available on 81% of the 195 patients alive. Nineteen (10%) of these had undergone PTA and 19 (10%) reconstruction. All aspects of quality of lif e deteriorated following conservative treatment. PTA and arterial reconstruction produced significant improvements in both pain and physical functioning after adjustment for case-mix. Although unlikely to improve survival, PTA and arterial reconstruction are associated with significant improvements in quality of life.
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