Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna

The King's College

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Isaac C. Kaplan

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Elizabeth A. Fulton

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

Peggy Turk-Boyer

Intercultural Center for the Study of Deserts and Oceans

Cameron H. Ainsworth

College of Marin

Héctor Reyes‐Bonilla

Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur

Adrián Munguía‐Vega

University of Arizona

Gabriela Cruz-Piñón

Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur

Phillip S. Levin

University of Washington

David Petatán‐Ramírez

Instituto Politécnico Nacional

Joy B. Zedler

University of Wisconsin–Madison

Cooperative Institutions

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

University of Washington

Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center

University of British Columbia

University of Tasmania

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Intercultural Center for the Study of Deserts and Oceans

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

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Future temperature and salinity in Puget Sound, Washington State, under CMIP6 climate change scenarios

Research Square (Research Square) (2021)

Stevie Walker Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Isaac C. Kaplan David Petatán‐Ramírez

Abstract In Washington State, climate change will reshape the Puget Sound marine ecosystem through bottom-up and top-down processes, directly affecting species at all trophic levels. To better understand future climate change effects on sea surface temperature and salinity in Puget Sound, we used empirical downscaling to derive high-resolution time series of future sea surface temperature and salinity. Downscaling was based on scenario outputs of two coarse-resolution General Circulation Models, GFDL-CM4 and CNRM-CM6-1-HR, developed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We calculated 30-year climatologies for historical and future simulations, calculated the anomalies between historical and future projections, interpolated to a high resolution, and applied the resulting downscaled anomalies to a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) time series, yielding short-term (2020–2050) and long-term (2070–2100) delta-downscaled forecasts. Downscaled output for Puget Sound showed temperature and salinity variability between scenarios and models, but overall, there was strong model agreement. Model variability and uncertainty was higher for long-term projections. Spatially, we found regional differences for both temperature and salinity, including higher temperatures in the South Basin of Puget Sound and higher salinity in the North Basin. This study is a first step to translating CMIP6 outputs to higher resolution predictions of future conditions in Puget Sound. Interpreting downscaled projections of temperature and salinity in Puget Sound will help inform future ecosystem-based management decisions, such as supporting end-to-end ecosystem modeling simulations and assessing local-scale exposure risk to climate change.

Temperature salinity diagrams

10.21203/rs.3.rs-905960/v1

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Does seed availability limit plant establishment during salt marsh restoration?

Estuaries and Coasts (2007)

Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Joy B. Zedler

Salt marsh

Restoration Ecology

Soil seed bank

10.1007/bf02782963

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Citations (57)

Effective ecosystem-based management must encourage regulatory compliance: A Gulf of California case study

Marine Policy (2012)

Cameron H. Ainsworth Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Isaac C. Kaplan Phillip S. Levin Elizabeth A. Fulton

Overfishing

Marine protected area

Marine conservation

Marine reserve

10.1016/j.marpol.2012.03.016

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Citations (27)

Ocean Futures Under Ocean Acidification, Marine Protection, and Changing Fishing Pressures Explored Using a Worldwide Suite of Ecosystem Models

Frontiers in Marine Science (2018)

Erik Olsen Isaac C. Kaplan Cameron H. Ainsworth Gavin Fay Sarah Gaichas

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of the ocean considers all impacts on and uses of marine and coastal systems. In recent years, there has been a heightened interest in EBM tools that allow testing of alternative management options and help identify tradeoffs among human uses. End-to-end ecosystem modelling frameworks that consider a wide range of management options are a means to provide integrated solutions to the complex ocean management problems encountered in EBM. Here, we leverage the global advances in ecosystem modelling to explore common opportunities and challenges for ecosystem-based management, including changes in ocean acidification, spatial management, and fishing pressure across eight Atlantis (atlantis.cmar.csiro.au) end-to-end ecosystem models. These models represent marine ecosystems from the tropics to the arctic, varying in size, ecology, and management regimes, using a three-dimensional, spatially-explicit structure parametrized for each system. Results suggest stronger impacts from ocean acidification and marine protected areas than from altering fishing pressure, both in terms of guild-level (i.e., aggregations of similar species or groups) biomass and in terms of indicators of ecological and fishery structure. Effects of ocean acidification were typically negative (reducing biomass), while MPAs led to both 'winners' and 'losers' at the level of particular species (or functional groups). Changing fishing pressure (doubling or halving) had smaller effects on the species guilds or ecosystem indicators than either OA or MPAs. Compensatory effects within guilds led to weaker average effects at the guild level than the species or group level. The impacts and tradeoffs implied by these future scenarios are highly relevant as ocean governance shifts focus from single-sector objectives (e.g., sustainable levels of individual fished stocks) to taking into account competing industrial sectors' objectives (e.g., simultaneous spatial management of energy, shipping, and fishing) while at the same time grappling with compounded impacts of global climate change (e.g., ocean acidification and warming).

Guild

Marine ecosystem

Ocean Acidification

Marine protected area

Ecosystem-Based Management

10.3389/fmars.2018.00064

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Citations (74)

Linking climate stressors to ecological processes in ecosystem models, with a case study from the Gulf of Alaska

ICES Journal of Marine Science (2024)

Alberto Rovellini André E. Punt Meaghan D. Bryan Isaac C. Kaplan Martin W. Dorn

Abstract As climate stressors are impacting marine ecosystems and fisheries across the world, ecosystem models that incorporate environmental variables are increasingly used to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management. The assumptions around the mechanistic links between climate stressors and the biological processes in these models are important, but the implications for model outcomes of which stressors are captured and how they affect modeled biological processes are seldom explored. Using a whole-ecosystem model (Atlantis) for the Gulf of Alaska, we explore the effects of capturing physical (increased temperature) and biogeochemical (decreased low trophic level productivity) climate stressors, and disentangle the effects of each stressor on the productivity of forage fish, groundfish, and fish-eating seabirds. We then test the effects of alternative model specifications of temperature-driven habitat determination and bioenergetics. Increased temperature resulted in increased weight-at-age and higher natural mortality, while decreased productivity resulted in decreased weight-at-age and higher natural mortality. Model specification of temperature dependence of movement and spawning influenced model outcomes, and decoupling these processes from temperature led to overly optimistic biomass predictions. As the use of ecosystem models to inform fisheries management becomes more operational, we illustrate that the assumptions around the links between climate stressors and ecological processes influence model outcomes.

Stressor

10.1093/icesjms/fsae002

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Citations (12)

Potential changes in the distribution of suitable habitat for Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) under climate change scenarios

Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography (2019)

David Petatán‐Ramírez Miguel Ángel Ojeda-Ruíz Laura Sánchez‐Velasco David Rivas Héctor Reyes‐Bonilla

10.1016/j.dsr2.2019.07.020

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Citations (21)

Long-Term Effects of Tidal Exclusion on Salt Marsh Plain Species at Estero de Punta Banda, Baja California

Estuaries and Coasts (2010)

Silvia E. Ibarra-Obando Miriam Poumian-Tapia Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna

Salt marsh

10.1007/s12237-009-9253-x

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Citations (7)

Ecosystem-level Impacts of Oil Spills: A Review of Available Data with Confidence Metrics for Application to Ecosystem Models

Environmental Modeling & Assessment (2023)

Raisha Lovindeer Sara Mynott Javier Porobic Elizabeth A. Fulton Sharon E. Hook

Marine ecosystem

10.1007/s10666-023-09905-1

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Citations (9)

Tourist Preferences for Whale Watching and Rule Changes in the Salish Sea

Abby Schamp Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Melissa A. Knox Christopher M. Anderson

Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add Paper to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access to this page indefinitely Copy URL Copy DOI

10.2139/ssrn.4690399

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Vulnerability to climate change of hypersaline salt marshes in the Northern Gulf of California

Ocean & Coastal Management (2014)

Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Peggy Turk-Boyer Alyssa Rosemartin Víctor F. Camacho-Ibar

Salt marsh

Vulnerability

10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.03.004

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Citations (12)