Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna

The King's College

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Isaac C. Kaplan

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Elizabeth A. Fulton

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

Peggy Turk-Boyer

Intercultural Center for the Study of Deserts and Oceans

Cameron H. Ainsworth

College of Marin

Héctor Reyes‐Bonilla

Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur

Adrián Munguía‐Vega

University of Arizona

Gabriela Cruz-Piñón

Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur

Phillip S. Levin

University of Washington

David Petatán‐Ramírez

Instituto Politécnico Nacional

Joy B. Zedler

University of Wisconsin–Madison

Cooperative Institutions

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

University of Washington

Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center

University of British Columbia

University of Tasmania

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northwest Fisheries Science Center

Intercultural Center for the Study of Deserts and Oceans

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere

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An Atlantis Ecosystem Model for the Gulf of Mexico supporting Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

Cameron H. Ainsworth Michael J. Schirripa Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna

Ecosystem model

Ecosystem Approach

10.7289/v5x63jvh

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Citations (35)

The challenge of restoring vegetation on tidal, hypersaline substrates

Plant and Soil (2003)

Joy B. Zedler Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Kristen M. Ward

Salt marsh

Revegetation

10.1023/a:1024599203741

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Citations (68)

Tourist Preferences for Whale Watching and Rule Changes in the Salish Sea

Abby Schamp Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Melissa A. Knox Christopher M. Anderson

10.2139/ssrn.4409663

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Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

Global Change Biology (2017)

Jorge G. Álvarez‐Romero Adrián Munguía‐Vega Maria Beger María del Mar Mancha-Cisneros Alvin Suárez

Abstract Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well‐connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration ( PLD ) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean‐warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLD s. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph‐theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance‐weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better‐connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation‐only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.

Marine reserve

Marine ecosystem

Marine protected area

Ecological forecasting

10.1111/gcb.13989

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Citations (65)

Ecosystem Effects of Climate and Global Change in the Marine Ecosystem of the Northern Gulf of California, Mexico

145th Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society (2015)

Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna

Marine ecosystem

Ecosystem-Based Management

Source

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Historical use of coastal wetlands by small-scale fisheries in the Northern Gulf of California

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (2022)

Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Mabilia Urquidi Gabriela Cruz-Piñón José Manuel Dorantes Hernández Paloma A. Valdivia Jiménez

Abstract Coastal wetlands are rich and productive ecosystems that historically have been used by small-scale fisheries due to their role as refuges, feeding, and nursery habitats for commercial target species. We used wetland resource users’ Local Ecological Knowledge to document historical patterns of commercial species abundance, areas of fishing importance, trophic level, and species richness and composition in coastal wetlands in the Northern Gulf of California, Mexico. We also reconstructed the environmental history of coastal wetlands in this region from bibliographic sources and photographic records, to document impacts that could have affected coastal fisheries. We found a consistent downward trend in target species abundance; the decrease was perceived as more pronounced by fishers that began fishing in or prior to the 1950’s, pointing to shifting baselines, the failure for resource users to recognize environmental change and accept degraded states as normal. Areas of fishing importance within coastal wetlands also decreased through time. Trophic level of catch showed no distinct pattern across wetland sites or time. Perceived species richness and composition increased with wetland size. Our analysis of the small-scale use of coastal wetlands in the Northern Gulf is relevant to food security and can provide insight into how local populations adapt to depleted coastal food webs.

10.1101/2022.10.31.513536

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Competitive Interactions Between Two Salt Marsh Halophytes Across Stress Gradients

Wetlands (2013)

Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Joy B. Zedler

Salt marsh

Spartina alterniflora

10.1007/s13157-013-0479-9

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Citations (16)

Ecosystem-Based Harvest Control Rules for Norwegian and US Ecosystems

Frontiers in Marine Science (2020)

Isaac C. Kaplan Cecilie Hansen Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Raphaël Girardin Kristin N. Marshall

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) provides a simulation framework to test the performance of living marine resource management. MSE has now been adopted broadly for use in single-species fishery management, often using a relatively simple 'operating model' that projects population dynamics of one species forward in time. However, many challenges in ecosystem-based management involve tradeoffs between multiple species and interactions of multiple stressors. Here we use complex operating models, multi-species ecosystem models of the California Current and Nordic and Barents Seas, to test threshold harvest control rules that explicitly address the linkage between predators and prey, and between the forage needs of predators and fisheries. Our investigation led to three main results. First, consistent with studies based on single-species operating models, we found that compared to constant F=FMSY policies, threshold rules led to higher target stock biomass for Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) in the California Current and mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Nordic and Barents Seas. Performance in terms of catch of these species varied depending partly on the biomass and recovery trajectory for the simulated stock. Secondly, the multi-species operating models and the harvest control rules that linked fishing mortality rates to prey biomass (zooplankton) led to increased catch variability; this stemmed directly from the harvest rule that frequently adjusted Pacific hake or mackerel fishing rates in response to zooplankton, which are highly variable in these two ecosystems. Thirdly, tests suggested that threshold rules that increased fishing when productivity (zooplankton) declined had the potential for strong ecosystem effects on other species. These effects were most apparent in the Nordic and Barents Seas simulations. Further developing and testing such ecosystem-level considerations can be achieved with the Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem models applied here, which have the added benefit of tracking the follow-on effects of the harvest control rule on the broader ecosystem.

Ecosystem model

Stock assessment

Marine ecosystem

10.3389/fmars.2020.00652

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Citations (14)

Future temperature and salinity in Puget Sound, Washington State, under CMIP6 climate change scenarios

Journal of Water and Climate Change (2022)

Stevie Walker Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Isaac C. Kaplan David Petatán‐Ramírez

Abstract Climate change will reshape estuarine ecosystems through bottom-up and top-down processes, directly affecting species at all trophic levels. To better understand future regional climate change effects on sea surface temperature and salinity, we used empirical downscaling to derive high-resolution time series of future sea surface temperature and salinity in Puget Sound (Washington State, USA). Downscaling was based on scenario outputs of two coarse-resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) general circulation models, GFDL-CM4 and CNRM-CM6-1-HR. We calculated 30-year climatologies for historical and future simulations, calculated the anomalies between historical and future projections, interpolated to a fine-resolution, and applied these downscaled anomalies to a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) time series, yielding short-term and long-term delta-downscaled forecasts. Downscaled output for Puget Sound showed temperature and salinity variability between scenarios and models, but overall, there was a strong model agreement of future surface warming and freshening in Puget Sound. Spatially, we found regional differences for both temperature and salinity, including higher temperatures in South Puget Sound and lower salinity in Whidbey Basin. Interpreting and applying downscaled CMIP6 projections of temperature and salinity will help assess climate change vulnerability and inform future ecosystem-based management decisions in Puget Sound and other coastal and estuarine systems.

Temperature salinity diagrams

10.2166/wcc.2022.282

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Citations (7)

Landowner Satisfaction with the Wetlands Reserve Program in Wisconsin

Environmental Management (2005)

Kenneth J. Forshay Hem Nalini Morzaria‐Luna Brack W. Hale Katie Predick

Easement

Restoration Ecology

10.1007/s00267-004-0093-y

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Citations (22)