Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.
Abstract Among ectotherms, rare species are expected to have a narrower thermal niche breadth and reduced acclimation capacity and thus be more vulnerable to global warming than their common relatives. To assess these hypotheses, we experimentally quantified the thermal sensitivity of seven common, uncommon, and rare species of temperate marine annelids of the genus Ophryotrocha to assess those species’ vulnerability to ocean warming. We measured the upper and lower limits of physiological thermal tolerance, survival, and reproductive performance of each species along a temperature gradient (18, 24, and 30°C). We then combined this information to produce curves of each species’ fundamental thermal niche by including trait plasticity. Each thermal curve was then expressed as a habitat suitability index (HSI) and projected for the Mediterranean Sea and temperate Atlantic Ocean under a present day (1970-2000), mid- (2050-2059) and late- (2090-2099) 21st Century scenario for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Rare and uncommon species showed a reduced upper thermal tolerance compared to common species, and the niche breadth and acclimation capacity were comparable among groups. The simulations predicted an overall increase in the HSI for all species and identified potential hotspots of HSI decline for uncommon and rare species along the warm boundaries of their potential distribution, though they failed to project the higher sensitivity of these species into a greater vulnerability to ocean warming. In the discussion, we provide elements and caveats on the implications of our results for conservation efforts.
Abstract Atlantic bluefin tuna ( ABFT ) has always displayed spectacular changes in its spatial distribution, but the underlying mechanism of such variations still remains obscure. This study focuses on this challenging issue by scrutinizing the intriguing ‘Brazilian episode’ during which a large quantity of ABFT (a temperate species) was caught during the 1960s in the equatorial Atlantic. To investigate this event, we applied a niche model to an extensive data set of catch and environmental variables from 1960 to 2009. ABFT exhibited a remarkably large ecological niche, which matches well with our current knowledge of ABFT . Our results also depicted a high probability of ABFT occurrence in the South Atlantic and, more interestingly, favorable environmental conditions in the western equatorial Atlantic during the 1960s, but not later. ABFT could thus have migrated from their northern spawning grounds to the South Atlantic during the 1960s through the western equatorial Atlantic, playing the role of an ‘ecological bridge’. We argue that the rarity of ABFT in the southern Atlantic during the last four decades would result from the interaction of several processes, particularly oceanographic conditions, migratory behavior, density‐dependence, exploitation levels and population structure. Examination of the catch data further indicated that the fish caught in the equatorial Atlantic were from the western stock and we concluded that the lack of rebuilding of this stock could result from a regime shift due to the combination of oceanographic changes in the equatorial Atlantic and overfishing in the North Atlantic in the 1960s and 1970s.
Abstract Trait‐based approaches enable comparison of community composition across multiple organism groups. Yet, little is known about the degree to which empirical trait responses found for one taxonomic group can be generalized across organisms. In this study, we investigated the spatial variability of marine community‐weighted mean traits and compared their environmental responses across multiple taxa and habitats, including pelagic zooplankton (copepods), demersal fish, and benthic infaunal invertebrates. We used extensive, spatially explicit datasets collected from scientific surveys in the North Sea and examined community composition of these groups using a trait‐based approach. In order to cover the key biological characteristics of an organism, we considered three life‐history traits (adult size, offspring size, and fecundity) and taxon‐specific feeding traits. While many of the traits co‐varied in space and notably demonstrated a south–north gradient, none of the traits showed a consistent spatial distribution across all groups. However, traits are often correlated as a result of trade‐offs. When studying spatial patterns of multiple traits variability in fish and copepods, we showed a high spatial correlation. This also applied to a lesser extent to fish and benthic infauna, whereas no correlation was found between benthic infauna and copepods. The result suggested a decoupling in the community traits between strictly benthic and strictly pelagic species. The strongest drivers of spatial variability for many community traits are the gradients in temperature seasonality, primary productivity, fishing effort, and depth. Spatial variability in benthic traits also co‐varied with descriptors of the seabed habitat. Overall, results showed that trait responses to environmental gradients cannot be generalized across organism groups, pointing toward potential complex responses of multi‐taxa communities to environmental changes and highlighting the need for cross‐habitat multi‐trait analyses to foresee how environmental change will affect community structure and biodiversity at large.
Abstract Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model to a species distribution model, we show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks would have shifted and 78% of the world EEZs will experience at least one shifting stock under a high emission climate change scenario. By the end of this century, 81% of EEZ waters will see at least one shifting stock with a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally, under a high emissions scenario. Importantly, many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for income, food and nutrition security, as well as livelihoods emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts showing early, and sometimes past shifts. Existing fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity in addressing transboundary shifts, and strengthened where necessary to limit conflict over these fish stocks while new agreements are urged to considere this problematic in order to be resilient to global change.
